Differences In Spatial And Temporal Changes In Carbon Emissions From Factor-intensive Industries In China And Their Main Driving Factors

With the increasing problem of environmental pollution in China,the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions has always been an important research content in various scientific research fields.China’s "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes that environmental pollution should be treated from the source,and industry is the main source of carbon emissions.Excessive industrial carbon emissions have always been an important problem for the country to solve.China’s industrial energy structure has always been dominated by coal,and the industry has shown a significant "carbon increase" in the process of China’s rapid economic development.Therefore,exploring the temporal and spatial evolution trend of carbon emissions from factor-intensive industries and their sub-sectors,and revealing the spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions from factor-intensive industries in China is of great significance for China to achieve carbon emission reduction goals and is conducive to China’s sustainable development.This paper selects the panel data of carbon emissions of various industries in 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018,uses spatial analysis to study the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions from factor-intensive industries and its sub-sectors,and uses Moran’s I index to test factor-intensive industries.Spatial correlation of carbon emissions in industries and their sub-sectors,applying standard deviation ellipse and hot-spot analysis methods to explore the geo-spatial migration trajectories and spatial agglomeration characteristics of carbon emissions in factor-intensive industries and their sub-sectors.Finally,the influencing factors of carbon emissions of China’s factor-intensive industries are analyzed by constructing a spatial Durbin model.The results of this paper are as follows:（1）During the research period,carbon emissions from factor-intensive industries have always maintained an increasing trend,from 36.144 million tons in 2003 to89.819 million tons in 2018,which is 2.49 times that of 2003.The time series characteristics of carbon emissions of most industries in each sub-industry generally show a development trend of first increase and then decrease,and some industries such as electricity,steam,hot water production and supply,natural gas production and supply,transportation,warehousing,post and telecommunications The carbon emissions of services,special equipment and other industries have always shown an upward trend,and the time series changes of carbon emissions in various industries have different characteristics.In addition,the total asset value of China’s factor-intensive industries has generally shown a rapid growth trend,from 15352.617 billion yuan in 2003 to 103494.997 billion yuan in 2018,an average annual increase of 5508.9 billion yuan,and a 6.7-fold increase in quantity.In terms of the development trend of the industry from 2003 to 2018,the development rate of assets in the early stage increased rapidly and began to decrease slowly in the later stage.（2）From 2003 to 2018,the average value of the global Moran’I index of carbon emissions from factor-intensive industries was 0.280,and the average value of p-value was 0.021,showing significant spatial dependence.From 2003 to 2018,the carbon emission centers of China’s capital-intensive industries,capital-technologyintensive industries and labor-intensive industries were mainly distributed in Henan,and they all tended to migrate to the west.The focus of carbon emissions from labor and technology-intensive industries shifted from Henan to Shandong from 2003 to2015,and gradually began to shift from Shandong to Henan from 2015 to 2018,with a tendency to migrate to the west.In addition,the carbon emissions of capital-intensive industries,technology-intensive industries and labor and technology-intensive industries tend to be concentrated in the northeast-southwest direction,and tend to be scattered in the northwest-southeast direction.The carbon emissions of labor-intensive industries and capital and technology-intensive industries tend to be dispersed in the northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast directions.In addition,from 2003 to 2018,the carbon emission hotspots of factor-intensive industries and their sub-sectors were mainly distributed in the eastern region,and the changes in the cold spots were not significant.Small;labor-intensive industries,labor-intensive industries,and capital-intensive industries have a sharp increase in the agglomeration of carbon emission hotspots,while on the whole,the hotspots of factor-intensive industries have shrunk sharply.（3）According to the analysis results of the spatial Durbin model,it is concluded that the direct effect of energy scale and location entropy is positive,and the indirect effect is negative.It shows that when the energy scale and location entropy of a region increase,the carbon emissions of the factor-intensive industries in the region will increase,and the carbon emissions of the factor-intensive industries in the neighboring regions will decrease;the direct effect of the industrial structure is negative,Indirect effects are positive.For every 1% increase in the regional industrial structure,the carbon emission level of the local factor-intensive industries decreases by 0.39%,but the spillover effect on the carbon emissions of the factor-intensive industries in adjacent regions is not significant;the direct and indirect effects of the energy structure are both positive.For every 1% increase in the local energy structure,the carbon emission level of local factor-intensive industries will increase by 0.053%,and its total carbon emission level will increase by 0.056%.Significant;the direct and indirect effects of the first-order coefficient of economic growth are both positive,and the direct and indirect effects of the quadratic coefficient are both negative.It shows that there is an inverted "U"-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between China’s economic growth effect and the carbon emissions of factor-intensive industries.In the early stage of regional economic growth,the carbon emissions of factor-intensive industries in the region increased,and at the same time,it had a significant spillover effect on the carbon emissions of factor-intensive industries in neighboring regions.In the later stage,regional economic growth will promote the reduction of carbon emissions of factor-intensive industries in local and adjacent regions.