Research On The Low-carbon Development Path Of Transportation In Guangzhou Under The Carbon Peak Target

Under the Chinese government’s goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,as the main CO₂ emitting regional units,cities are the focus of low-carbon development.And the transportation sector,as the fastest-growing carbon emission sector in China,the realization of its carbon peak is of great significance to the early achievement of overall carbon peak in China.In this study,the transportation industry of Guangzhou is taken as the research object,uses a bottom-up approach to calculate transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007-2019,and qualitatively analyzes the feasible directions for low-carbon transportation,and uses the LMDI factor decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting transportation carbon emissions,so as to identify the key driving factors of LEAP model.The LEAP framework was then constructed based on the actual situation of Guangzhou’s transportation terminal energy consumption,and three scenarios for the future development of transport carbon emissions,namely the baseline scenario,the regulation scenario and the blueprint scenario,are set up with scenario analysis method,based on the above analysis and the development plan of Guangzhou,the parameters of the three scenarios are set and input into LEAP model to predict the future traffic carbon emission trend,so as to judge the peak time and peak level of traffic carbon in Guangzhou.Finally,a reasonable path for Guangzhou’s transportation carbon emissions to reach the peak and related policy recommendations are proposed,and the research results are as follows:（1）The energy consumption and carbon emission of Guangzhou transportation have been increasing from 2007-2019,which was in the“Double rising”stage,without achieving the carbon peak.In 2019,25.45 Mtce of energy were consumed and 56.63 Mt of carbon dioxide were emitted intransportation,but their growth trends have slowed down significantly,from"11th Five-Year Plan"to the"13th Five-Year Plan",the average annual growth rate has been reduced for two consecutive years.During the study period,the growth in transport carbon emissions mainly from waterborne freight,road freight,aviation passenger,aviation freight and private cars transport,with contributions of 30.42%,26.12%,21.92%,11.6%and9.58%.（2）The LMDI method is used to analyze the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Guangzhou,and the result shows that the main driving factors are GDP,population,energy consumption intensity,transportation structure and transportation demand,which provide directions for scenario setting and parameter setting.（3）Under the baseline scenario,following the existing policies,Guangzhou’s transportation carbon emissions are still growing by 2035,and although the growth trend slows down,it cannot meet the goal of reaching peak carbon in 2030.Under the regulation scenario,through transportation energy saving and emission reduction regulation measures such as controlling transport demand,optimising transport structure,improving energy efficiency and promoting the application of clean and new energy,Guangzhou transportation can achieve the carbon peak in 2028 with a peak volume of about 62.37 Mt CO₂.On this basis,further increasing the intensity of emission reduction measures,the carbon peak of Guangzhou traffic under the blueprint scenario can be advanced to 2025,with a peak volume of about 59.85 Mt CO₂.（4）Based on the existing policies and the increased implementation of measures,Guangzhou’s transportation carbon emissions can reach the peak by 2030 under the regulation scenario and the blueprint scenario,with carbon emission reduction potentials of 20.79 and31.24 million tons under the two scenarios.In comparison,the control scenario faces less pressure to reduce carbon emissions and requires less investment in infrastructure construction,so the regulation scenario is the optimal emission scenario to choose.