Research On Xi'an Carbon Emission Peak Forecast And Control Strategy

Going low-carbon development is a global consensus.To this end,the “13th Five-Year Plan” has once again strengthened the low-carbon development goals and promised that China will work hard to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions at an early date.Xi'an is the capital city of Shaanxi Province,and it is also China's third international metropolis and the most important central city in the western region.It needs to protect the ecological environment while achieving economic development and play an important leading role for low-carbon development.Therefore,this article takes Xi'an as the research object,establishes a model to explore the influencing factors of Xi'an's carbon emissions,and predicts the peak of Xi'an's carbon emissions under different scenarios.Based on the background of China's carbon emission reduction,it provides suggestions for Xi'an low-carbon development planning It is of great significance to the sustainable economic development of Xi'an.The main conclusions drawn from the research article are:(1)Xi'an's energy consumption is dominated by coal,and carbon emissions from energy consumption are relatively large.From the perspective of total carbon emissions,carbon emissions have been steadily rising from 2005 to 2015,and have declined slightly in 2016.The growth rate of carbon emissions in Xi'an has slowed down since 2009,and the energy intensity has continued to decline.The carbon emission reduction results are worthy of recognition.From the perspective of per capita carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions in Xi'an increased significantly during the study period,and the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is still facing great challenges.(2)Use the LMDI decomposition method to decompose the carbon emission influencing factors of Xi'an into population,GDP per capita,energy intensity and energy consumption structure.Among them,the factor that has the largest positive effect on the growth of carbon emissions in Xi'an is GDP per capita,which has the largest negative effect.The factors that influence energy intensity.The population has always had a positive effect on carbon emissions,and the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emissions has fluctuated.Relatively speaking,these two factors have little effect on the overall growth of carbon emissions.(3)Establish STIRPAT model based on independent variables of population,GDP per capita,energy intensity,energy consumption structure,proportion of secondary industry,and urbanization rate,and use ridge regression method to analyze the regression relationship between these six factors and carbon emissions in Xi'an.The results show that in addition to the negative effects of the energy intensity of Xi'an's carbon emissions,the other influencing factors are all positive effects.The degree of impact is in turn from urbanization rate,population,energy consumption structure,per capita GDP,Proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity.(4)Use scenario analysis to construct three models to predict carbon emissions in Xi'an in 2017-2050,and analyze the controllability of peak carbon emissions.Among the three scenarios,only the high-carbon model did not reach its peak,and the low-carbon model and the baseline model reached their peaks in 2035 and 2045,respectively.From the analysis of the controllability of the peak carbon emissions,it can be seen that population,per capita GDP,and urbanization rate have an impact on the peak amount and the peak time.The proportion of the secondary industry,energy intensity,and energy consumption structure only affect the peak amount and do not affect Peak time.