| Nowadays,with the global warming and increasingly severe environmental pollution,green and low-carbon development has become the common goal in all fields of society,and the carbon effect of agriculture has been paid more and more attention by people.Agriculture is different from industry in that it has the dual characteristics of carbon emission and carbon absorption.Agricultural carbon sink can effectively neutralize the carbon emissions generated in agricultural production.From the related research of agricultural carbon effect,many studies have explored the potential and countermeasures of agricultural carbon emission reduction from the perspective of agricultural carbon emission.Therefore,under the background of realizing the goal of "double carbon",this paper takes into account the dual characteristics of agricultural carbon emission and carbon absorption,scientifically estimates the agricultural carbon effect in Shanxi Province and discusses its carbon offset potential,and rationally formulates the green development strategy of agriculture in Shanxi Province,which is helpful to promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Shanxi Province and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture on the basis of ensuring regional food security.This paper constructs an accounting list from three aspects: farmland utilization,livestock and poultry breeding and crop carbon sequestration,defines the difference between agricultural absorption and emission as agricultural carbon effect,calculates the agricultural carbon emission,carbon absorption and agricultural carbon effect of 11 cities in Shanxi Province from 2009 to 2020,and analyzes the temporal and spatial variation characteristics.Using spatial autocorrelation analysis and β spatial convergence test verifies the spatial correlation and convergence of agricultural carbon offset rate in 11 cities in Shanxi Province.On this basis,the parameter comparison method is used to analyze the agricultural carbon compensation potential of 11 cities in Shanxi Province,so as to provide corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for promoting regional collaborative emission reduction in Shanxi Province.The results show that:（1）From 2009 to 2020,the agricultural ecosystem in Shanxi Province is a carbon sink system,with an average annual agricultural carbon emission of 3,571,400 tons and an average annual agricultural carbon emission of 2,641,000 tons,accounting for 73.95%.It is the main agricultural carbon source in Shanxi Province.The average annual carbon absorption of agriculture is 1,421.19 tons,and that of grain crops is 13,138,600 tons,accounting for 94.25%,which is the main category of crop carbon sequestration in Shanxi Province.The average annual net carbon sink of Shanxi Province is 10,640,500 tons,and the carbon effect of this agro-ecosystem is net carbon sink.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the agricultural carbon effects of 11 cities in Shanxi Province are all agricultural carbon sinks,with obvious spatial differences.The medium-carbon effect areas and higher-carbon effect areas are the main ones,the number of medium-carbon effect areas is increasing,and the distribution of high-carbon effect areas is relatively stable and mainly located in the south of Shanxi.（2）From 2009 to 2020,there is a positive spatial correlation between agricultural carbon compensation rates in 11 cities in Shanxi Province,showing the phenomenon of relative aggregation of high-level areas and low-level areas.Cities with high-level concentration are mainly located in the south of Shanxi Province,while cities with lowlevel concentration are mainly located in the north of Shanxi Province.Shanxi Province is divided into the North（Datong,Shuozhou,Xinzhou,Taiyuan and Lvliang）and the South（Jinzhong,Changzhi,Jincheng,Yuncheng,Linfen and Yangquan）,The high-value concentrated cities were mainly located in Southern Shanxi and the low-value concentrated cities were mainly located in northern Shanxi.There are both absolute convergence and conditional convergence in Shanxi Province,northern and southern Shanxi.Compared with high-level areas,the growth rate of low-level areas of agricultural carbon compensation rate is faster,and the agricultural carbon offset rate shows a trend of convergence in the region.（3）Using the parameter comparison method,the regional differences of agricultural carbon offset potential are analyzed from the provincial and regional levels.From the perspective of Shanxi Province,the agricultural carbon offset potential in most cities is low,and there is a certain space for tapping the carbon compensation potential.Datong City has the highest potential for agricultural carbon offset（52.13%）,the middle and high potential areas for agricultural carbon offset are mainly concentrated in the northern region,and the low potential areas for agricultural carbon offset are mainly concentrated in the southern region.From the regional level,Datong City has the highest average potential of agricultural carbon offset in the north of Shanxi Province.Compared with the result of absolute convergence in Shanxi Province,the space of agricultural carbon offset is reduced,and Yuncheng City has the highest average potential of agricultural carbon offset in the south of Shanxi Province.（4）Combined with the actual situation of Shanxi Province,the suggestions for the development of green agriculture in Shanxi Province were put forward.Formulate lowcarbon agricultural development policies in 11 cities in Shanxi Province according to local conditions;Take the development of agricultural technology as the driving force to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources;Promote regional exchanges and cooperation,and promote regional coordinated emission reduction;Promote moderate scale management of agricultural land and optimize land use pattern;Strengthen the supporting and guiding role of policies and finance in the development of green agriculture.In order to provide theoretical reference for accelerating the upgrading and transformation of low-carbon agriculture in Shanxi Province and promoting the transformation of agriculture to ecological,circular,green and low-carbon development mode. |
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