Study On The Profit Change Of Wind Power Investment In Grid Parity Period

Wind power as new energy has great significance for the development and structural adjustment of China’s energy industry.In recent years,wind power industry has developed rapidly.In 2018,wind power generation was 366 billion k Wh(accounting for 5.2% of the total power generation),and the cumulative grid connection reached 184GW(accounting for 9.7% of the total installed power capacity),with an annual investment of more than 100 billion RMB.Wind power has become an important part of power energy,and has huge development potential in the future.In 2009,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)carried out benchmark feed-intariffs on wind power for different wind-class areas of types I to IV.After years of development,the cost of wind power has dropped significantly,and has been gradually close to coal power price.In May 2019,the NDRC issued a notice that the newly approved onshore wind power projects will implement parity on-grid(according to benchmark local on-grid coal power prices)from 2021,and the state will no longer subsidize wind power.The parity price has dropped significantly compared to theprevious feed-in tariff on wind power,which will definitely have a great impact on return of investment(ROI)on wind power project,so It is necessary to study the change of investment profit caused by the change of electricity price.Based on the study on the development of the wind power industry in China,the cost and price change,the theory of economic evaluation,this paper analyzes the changes of ROI of wind power project in different provinces(regions)in parity period,and the study is mainly about macro trends.First,Comprehensive reviews the relevant background and investment conditions of wind power project.Next,uses the learning curve theory make cost predictions with LCOE(Levelized Costof Energy),performs a linear regression analysis with Eviews software to obtain a linear relationship equation between the cumulative installed capacity and cost of wind power,with the result showing the cost of wind power decreases as the cumulative installed capacity increases.Further,base on considering various complex boundary conditions and factors of economic evaluation for wind power project,establishes a concise and practical economic evaluation model for wind power project based on IRR(internal rate of return)methodology.Then,The built model is applied to economic evaluation for wind power project according to certain benchmarks and the IRR of wind powerproject in different provinces is quantitatively calculated,the impact in different regions will be different,with the results showing that:IRR will be under base line in most provinces by 2021,while IRR will be above base line in about half of the provinces by 2023 and above base line in most provinces by 2025.The calculation and forecast results provide an intuitive basis for judging investingin wind power project in different regions in grid parity period.In general,the implementation of parity pricing on-grid is basically in line with the fact of China’s wind power industry development,the returns of investment can meet target.The study in this paper combines the macro with micro,the theory with practice well,both the overall development and project investment,both theories and the fact of wind power industry.It provides a economic evaluating model and guidance for investment in wind power projects,and provides an effectivereference for studying and forecasting the change of ROI of onshore wind power investment in grid parity period,furthermore provides a good method for understanding and investing in an industry,in additionprovides guidance and reference for relevant industrial policy making.