Research On Application Of Intelligent Dispatching In Power System Based On Load Forecasting

Load forecasting is one of the most important tasks in power sector.Accurate load forecasting is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of power system.With the development of intelligent dispatching concept and technology application in power system,load forecasting should be combined with new theory,technology,method and platform to adapt to the development and change of intelligent dispatching.Based on the comparative analysis of the characteristics and application scope of the mainstream forecasting models,this paper summarizes the four problems existing in the load forecasting of power system: the theoretical research should be more combined with the practical application,the lack of load side research in the load forecasting of power system,the need to strengthen the means of information application,and the improvement of the response capacity of the major changes in the load forecasting of power system.In view of the lack of load side research in power system load forecasting,this paper proposes two new load forecasting methods.The first is power system load forecasting based on dynamic optimal weight combination model.This method puts forward the concept of "dynamic optimal weight".In the process of combination forecasting of various forecasting methods,virtual forecasting is used to optimize the weight dynamically in real time to achieve the best forecasting results.The second method is based on the load forecasting of power grid at Prefecture and city level and the factors such as regional climate and economic development.Through "split prediction",this method starts from the point of view of city level load,well understands how the load is affected by external factors,and continuously tracks and studies various influencing factors and mechanism for a long time.In view of the problem that theoretical research should be more combined with practical application,this paper tests the feasibility of the two new methods through practical prediction,and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods in detail.As an important part of power dispatching,the "intelligence" of load forecasting methods and means can better adapt to and improve the development system and requirements of intelligent dispatching.Therefore,this paper develops a set of load forecasting web application "State Grid central China branch load forecasting system",which can greatly reduce the workload of users and make load forecasting more convenient,intelligent,visual and accurate.Through the intelligent development and research of load forecasting application platform,the content of intelligent dispatching of power system can be continuously improved and the development of intelligent dispatching of power system can be promoted.