Research On Expressway Travel Time Prediction Considering Fuzzy And Uncertain Factors

In order to solve the increasingly serious traffic congestion problem and provide the basis for traffic management and travel decision-making,accurate prediction of travel time has become one of the key issues in the field of transportation.Based on the massive toll flow data of the expressway,this paper starts from the fuzziness and uncertainty of the factors that affect the expressways travel time,and combines the basic characteristics of the traffic condition and travel time of expressways,and establishes the expressway travel time prediction model based on the soft set theory.It mainly includes the following contents:First,characteristic analysis of traffic condition and travel time.The changes in road traffic condition and travel time are caused by the interaction of various factors,among which the weather and time period are two important factors.This paper mainly studies the time-varying law of the proportion of road congestion and the influence of spatialtemporal correlation on the prediction of road traffic condition through the spatialtemporal model,and analyzes the characteristic distribution of travel time from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives of the repeatability,periodicity and period of time series changes,as well as the impact of different rainfall intensity on travel time.Second,characteristic soft set map construction of travel time.There are uncertainties in the nature of road traffic flow.In addition to some easily quantifiable characteristic parameters of traffic flow,the uncertainty and ambiguity in the road traffic environment have a great influence on the traffic state and travel time.In this paper,soft set theory is used to qualitatively analyze and quantify the ambiguity factors.The membership functions and parameter weights are used to quantify ambiguity factors such as weather factors and traffic flow characteristic parameters.The mapping of feature soft set model of travel time is established by the extraction of the influencing factors,mapping parameter representation and mapping relationship construction of the feature soft set,and the mapping relationship between the influencing factors and travel time is further analyzed.Third,predicting expressway travel time under uncertain conditions.According to the feature soft set model,the mapping relationship between the influencing factors and travel time is established,and then the expressway travel time prediction model is established in the form of soft set according to the mapping relationship.The first is to study the prediction of travel time under weather conditions.On this basis,a prediction model of travel time under multi-factor conditions is established.Finally,the experimental results prove the effectiveness of the model.In this paper,the validity of the model is verified through experiments,the results show that the model improves the prediction accuracy.