A Study On Procurement Risk Of EPC General Contracting Projects Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,China has vigorously promoted the EPC general contracting mode in the field of engineering construction.Compared with the traditional construction general contracting mode,the EPC mode has the advantages of low cost,short construction cycle,high construction quality,optimized resource allocation and reduced workload of owner organization and coordination.For the general contractor,it is essential to make risk control from the perspective of the general contractor while obtaining high profits.In EPC general contracting projects,the procurement process,as one of the core links,involves complex sources of risks and has the highest proportion of impact on cost.Therefore,it is essential and necessary to evaluate the purchase risk and formulate countermeasures according to the size of the risk.Based on the perspective of the general contractor,this paper makes the following research on the procurement risk of EPC general contracting project:EPC general contracting project procurement risk identification and analysis.First of all,through literature reading and sorting at home and abroad,23 risks in the procurement process of EPC general contracting project are identified,including supplier credit risk,lack of training resource investment risk,transportation risk,material price rise risk,etc.,and these 23 risks are summarized into five target risks with the help of risk management theory.They are progress risk,cost risk,information risk and personnel risk respectively.Secondly,on the basis of analyzing the causal relationship between the five major target risks and influencing factors,and target risks and target risks,the causal loop diagram is constructed by using Vensim software.Finally,the effects of fruit tree and fruit tree on risk factors are preliminarily analyzed.EPC general contracting project procurement risk assessment and control.Firstly,state variables,auxiliary variables,rate variables and constants were determined on the basis of the causal loop diagram,and the inventory flow diagram was constructed.Secondly,the risk index weight is determined by using the order relation analysis method,and the internal linear function is determined on this basis,and the risk evaluation model is constructed.Then,a risk value between 0 and 1 is given to the boundary risk to test the feasibility of the risk assessment model.Finally,risk control measures are formulated according to the boundary risks in the model.Procurement risk assessment and control of EPC general contracting project based on case project.The constructed risk assessment model was applied to the general contract project of the first phase of a villager resettlement house project in Jinan,Shandong Province.Firstly,according to the actual background of the case,the boundary risk is estimated and the function relationship of exogenous variables is determined.Secondly,the model is simulated and analyzed.According to the changes of each target risk,the risk level of each target in the resettlement housing project is determined.According to the risk level,the key risks in the project are personnel risk and information risk.Then,according to the personnel risk and information risk,select the corresponding risk control measures.Considering the limitation of resources,when selecting the risk control measures,use the sensitivity analysis method to rank the effects of the risk control measures on the project.Finally,in order to ensure that risk control measures will not affect other target risk,the risk control measures on the model,the model for simulation and analysis of the five target risk changes,the simulation results confirm the housing projects can strengthen the information investigation work,increase training resources into these two risk control measures to reduce the risk goal.The thesis combines system dynamics with the procurement risk of EPC engineering general contracting projects,constructs a risk evaluation model,and applies the model to specific case projects,and has achieved remarkable results,verifying that the system dynamics model constructed by the thesis is in EPC engineering general contracting project procurement risk analysis and application have practical guiding significance,and can provide decision-making basis for general contractor’s procurement risk management.