Research On Financing Risk Evaluation Of Expressway PPP Project Based On ISM-FAHP Model

In 2014,the Ministry of Finance document "Notice on Promoting the Use of Government and Social Capital Cooperation Models"(Finance [2014] No.76)provided policy support for the development of the PPP model.In 2015,the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued "Implementation Opinions on the Promotion and Application of the Cooperation Model between Government and Social Capital in the Highway Sector"(Caijian [2015] No.111)encourages cooperation between the government and social capital in the toll road sector.The government promotes the reform of the infrastructure investment and financing model,adopts the PPP model for expressway construction,and attracts social capital to invest in expressway projects,which can broaden the sources of investment funds and ease the government’s financial pressure.Highway PPP projects involve a huge amount of funds and a long period.The financing risks have the characteristics of long-term,sudden and complex nature,which directly affect the success or failure of the project.By evaluating the financing risk of expressway PPP projects,it provides theoretical guidance for the scientific management of financing risk of expressway PPP projects in our country,which is beneficial to preventing local debt crises.Based on the analysis of the capital structure and return mechanism of expressway PPP projects,this article identifies the financing risk factors of expressway PPP projects from the perspective of financing lenders,and uses systemic and non-systematic risks as the standard to pass risk.Analyze the mechanism,determine the list of financing risk factors,and reasonably share the risks.Construct the ISM-FAHP model to evaluate the financing risks of expressway PPP projects,use the ISM model to divide the risk levels,and divide the risk factors into three levels:surface,intermediate and deep levels;then use the FAHP model to construct a judgment matrix and calculate each the weight of the factor and the level of risk level.On this basis,a highway PPP project in City C was introduced,and the risk factors were scored using questionnaire survey and Delphi method,and the relevant data was counted into the model to obtain the level and weight of project financing risk factors,and related countermeasures were proposed.The research conclusions of this paper found that the lower the proportion of funds through financing for highway PPP projects,the lower the financing risk of financial institutions.Project operations generally use the BOT model,and the return mechanism generally uses "availability payment + feasibility gap subsidy".Through risk identification,nine major types of risks,including finance,market,policy,bank review,credit,construction,operation,finance,and force majeure,are summarized.In the case,the ISM is used to explain the structure model.The risk factors are divided into eight levels.Layers are classified as surface influencing factors,the second to fourth layers are classified as intermediate influencing factors,and the fifth to eighth layers are classified as deep influencing factors.At the same time,the judgment matrix constructed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has passed the consistency test.The surface,middle,and deep level risk evaluation values are 5.6283,4.8135,and 5.0674,respectively.It is concluded that the surface and deep level financing risk reviews are between average and low,and the intermediate level reviews are between average and high.Allocate financing risks based on the evaluation results and propose response measures to control risks.Finally,the thesis puts forward financing risk management suggestions from the aspects of reasonable project fund structure,project investment and income.