Construction And Simulation On Two-phase Economic Growth Model Under Energy Substitution

With the rapid development of the economy and science,the problem of energy consumption,environmental pollution,and economic growth has gradually become the focus of social attention.There is a contradiction between the non-renewable fossil energy and the dependence of China’s economic growth on energy consumption,and the carbon to reach the peak has become the new goal in the period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" under the background that the total energy consumption is still in the rising channel,and the "double control" of energy is particularly important.The reality shows that doing well in environmental pollution control and developing new energy is a feasible way to solve the coordinated development of the economy,energy,and environment.Based on the above background,the paper takes economic growth as the research object based on the constraints of energy substitution,and through the model construction and simulation,the paper explores the necessary conditions for sustainable economic growth in the process of energy substitution,and the time point for the transition from traditional energy to new energy as the goal,the main research content includes the following three aspects:(1)The two-phase endogenous economic growth model that is respectively supported by traditional energy and new energy are built under the background of energy substitution based on the related theories of economy,energy,and environment.(2)The social utility takes as the goal,and the Hamiltonian function is structured by means of the dynamic optimization method.After the equilibrium analysis of the two-stage economic growth model,the equation satisfying the optimal energy substitution point is obtained based on the two-stage optimal control theory,and the influencing factors are analyzed based on the mathematical model.(3)Based on the energy transformation and the actual data of Shanxi Province,the simulation analysis on different industries and different scenarios of two-phase economic growth model by MATLAB,the influence degree of relevant parameters on economic growth and optimal substitution time,and the change chart of economic growth path are given based on checking the simulation accuracy of the model.Through the construction,analysis,and dynamic simulation of the two-phase economic growth model,it is found that:From the point of energy substitution:(1)the economic growth at the optimal energy substitution point is discontinuous,and the output will decrease,but the economic development speed supported by new energy is enough to make up for the output jump in a short period.(2)Improving the efficiency of pollution control and reducing marginal elasticity of consumption will delay the process of energy substitution,while improving the efficiency of pollution control by technology can promote the process of energy substitution.From the aspect of economic growth rate:(1)relatively high pollution control efficiency in the second stage is the necessary condition to ensure that the second stage economic growth rate is higher than the first stage.(2)The economic growth rate supported by new energy is far higher than that of traditional energy.From the simulation of Shanxi Province:(1)the energy substitution points among different industries are as follows: primary industry > tertiary industry > whole > second industry,while the economic growth rate in the second stage is as follows: Second Industry > tertiary industry >whole > primary industry.(2)The energy substitution points in different scenarios are as follows:scenario 1 and scenario 3 will be ahead of schedule,while the energy substitution will show a lag in scenario 2,while the economic growth rate in the second stage is as follows: scenario 3 >scenario 1 > scenario 2.