| In recent years,due to the rapid development of China’s economy and the gradual improvement of the transportation system,passengers have demanded higher requirements for the travel experience.At present,traveling by train and plane is becoming the first choice for passengers.In order to effectively alleviate the pressure of the competition between railways,air transport,and provide better passenger travel experience,combined with the relevant state departments of this model of development,the air-rail intermodal transport theory have been adopted in many areas of China,effectively combined with the advantages of each mode of transportation.Which improve the economic and social benefits of the whole transportation system.This paper first analyzes the concept of transfer mode and the present situation of passenger air-rail transfer organization at home and abroad through combing the domestic and foreign passenger air-rail intermodal transportation research.The paper takes the airport-bus transfer mode,which is the most widely used in domestic passenger air-rail transfer,with analyzing characteristics of passenger flow as research objects.Then proposes a passenger flow prediction model based on the grey prediction method and the contribution rate prediction method.On this basis,considering the interests of passengers and enterprises,and aiming at minimizing the total loss of passengers due to waiting for trains and the total operating cost of enterprises,an optimization model of departure interval based on the passenger flow in different periods was established.Finally,the paper takes the air-rail combined transportation of passengers in A city as an example to predict the passenger flow,and proposes the optimization scheme of the departure interval of airport buses in different periods,which verifies the effectiveness and operability of the model and algorithm.The air and railway combined transportation of passengers is not only beneficial to improving the comprehensive transport service quality and meeting the more stringent requirements of passengers on the transport mode,but also creates a habitat to the continuous improvement of the transport organization mode and the construction of a modern transport system.The purpose of this paper is to optimize the transfer process of passenger air-rail combined transportation,thus improve the efficiency of passenger travel,the efficiency of passenger air-rail combined transportation and the competitiveness,and to provide some reference for the follow-up research. |