Study On Traffic Accident Probability Of Highway Tunnel In Mountainous Based On Bayesian Network

The mountain area accounts for more than 70% in China.With the development of western mountainous areas,the mileage of mountainous highway tunnels has been increasing year by year.Compared with the tunnel in plain area,there are complex terrain,frequent geological disasters,bad weather conditions,complex road alignment and many high-risk sections in mountain tunnels which lead to frequent major traffic accidents in mountain tunnels,causing serious casualties and economic losses.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the mechanism of traffic accidents in highway tunnels in mountainous areas,explore the key influencing factors of accidents,and put forward effective accident prevention measures to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents and ensure the safety of traffic in tunnels.According to the historical data of highway tunnel accidents in the western mountainous areas,this paper explores the temporal and spatial distribution of highway tunnel traffic accidents in the mountainous areas,and analyzes the accident influencing factors from four aspects of people,vehicles,roads and environment.Based on the method of system safety fault tree analysis,the mechanism of accident occurrence is studied,and the key factors of accident risk are analyzed by means of minimum cut set,structure importance and probability importance.The traffic accident analysis model of highway tunnel in mountainous area is constructed by bayesian network,and the accident probability is obtained through forward reasoning.The case analysis shows that the traffic accident analysis model based on bayesian network can effectively identify the key influencing factors of the accident,and the proposed accident prevention measures can effectively reduce the probability of traffic accidents,which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of the tunnel accident risk in mountain highway.