Road Traffic Accident Of Dangerous Goods Prediction Model Based On Bayesian Network

The safety and security of road transport of dangerous goods has always been an important part of the transport process, so it is necessary to forecast the probability of dangerous goods transport accident.The goal of dangerous goods road transport accident prediction is to examine the relationship amang traffic accident and the potential factors,including people,vehicle,road and environment, to find out the factors that affect the larger, and to propose effective transport management measures,to prevent the occurrence of accidents before the accident, reduce casualties, property damage and environmental pollution.This paper analyzes the causes of typical dangerous goods road transport accidents in recent years, use SPSS software on the cause of the accident on the basis of correlation analysis. According to the basic theory and method of Bayesian network, the K2 algorithm is used to study the structure of the Bayesian network and the Bayesian parameter estimation method is used to study the parameters with the help of BNT package based on Matlab language,And then established a Bayesian network based dangerous goods road transport accident prediction model. Simultaneously, the model is used to analyze the influence of each factor on the accident, verify the accuracy of the model.Through model analysis, It is found that exceed the speed and the negligence is the two factors that have the greatest impact on the road transport accident of dangerous goods. In the dangerous goods transport vehicles installed on the positioning speed system, when the speed exceeds the allowable range, an alarm is issued to remind the driver, to develop safe driving habits. Dangerous goods transport vehicle driver must obtain the appropriate driver and pass the exam before they can obtain the qualification certificate.Enhanced driver skills can be effectively reduced accidents due to negligence in the transport of dangerous goods. Check the vehicle and safety facilities before each transportation, It is forbidden to transport when the vehicle has some problem, usually pay attention to maintenance of vehicle maintenance, so that the vehicle tank to maintain a healthy state.