Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Automobile Manufacturing Industry

With the continuous growth of capital market and the intensification of market competition,Chinese automobile manufacturing industry is facing many development opportunities,but also needs to deal with many challenges.Consumers in contemporary society have changed from paying attention to price to paying attention to quality.If the strategic layout of Chinese automobile manufacturing industry cannot complete the evolution from price war to quality war,the core competitive advantages will disappear.The number of listed companies in Chinese automobile manufacturing industry increased from 95 in 2014 to147 in 2019,which not only promoted the transformation of various industries,but also played an important role in stimulating the growth of market economy.In recent years,the number of listed companies that have been specially treated for financial reasons has increased year by year,and the financial crisis of automobile manufacturing industry has attracted more and more attention.Therefore,this paper takes 95 automobile manufacturing companies as samples,selects appropriate financial indicators and non-financial indicators,builds a financial crisis early-warning model for automobile manufacturing industry,and monitors its financial crisis early-warning situation in time to ensure the sustainable development of automobile manufacturing industry and provide reference for management investment decision-making.In this paper,a case study method is adopted to build an early warning model of financial crisis in automobile manufacturing industry based on System Theory and Enterprise Diagnostics,and Asia-Pacific shares whose financial situation has been declining in recent years are selected as the research object.On the basis of combing domestic and foreign literatures,this paper defines the concepts of financial crisis enterprise and financial crisis early warning.Then,according to the system theory and enterprise diagnostics,the financial crisis early warning index system is constructed.Then,the principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of financial data to obtain the common factor coefficient and score.Then,the Logistic financial crisis early warning model is established according to the financial data of training set samples.Then,all the training set samples and inspection set samples are brought into the model to test the accuracy of the financial crisis early warning model under different thresholds,and the appropriate model thresholds are selected by comparative analysis to ensure that the model has higher early warning accuracy.Then,by analyzing the financial situation of Asia-Pacific stocks and comparing with the early warning results of the model,this paper studies the feasibility of the early warning model of automobile manufacturing financial crisis.After building the financial crisis early warning model of companies in automobile manufacturing industry,this paper draws the following conclusions: non-financial indicators are necessary for building the financial crisis early warning model of automobile manufacturing industry;The early warning accuracy of the model for actual ST companies is78.57%,while the overall accuracy for samples is 85.15%.The financial crisis early warning model can be used to warn the financial crisis of automobile manufacturing enterprises.However,this paper does not consider the influence of external environment on enterprises,such as the change of national policies and the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on market economy.Future research can try to incorporate external factors into the financial crisis index system to make the financial crisis early warning model of automobile manufacturing industry more comprehensive.