Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of China’s Automobile Manufacturing Industry Under The Three-dimensional Perspective

At present,the development of various industries in China is severely influenced by “new normal” of the macro economy.Some industries are even in the condition of stalled development.As one of the pillar industries of the national economy,motor industry has achieved rapid development in recent years.However,influenced by industrial policies,related industries,financial conditions and other aspects,the motor industry fluctuates substantially.The financial risks of motor industry not only affect their own benefits,but also relate to the macro economy,stock market and so on.Therefore,it is imperative to research and construct a feasible financial risk early warning system to guarantee the steady evolution of motor industry.Beginning from the analysis of financial risk mechanism in motor industry,this thesis divides the financial risks of motor industry into three dimensions which mainly include financial risk of operation,financial risk of investment and financial risk of financing based on the process of cash flow in motor industry.Besides,according to the three dimensions mentioned above,this thesis can design corresponding financial warning indexes and construct exponential models of financial risk early warning system.Finally,this thesis adopts a stereoscopic way to show different levels of financial risk in motor industry by using three-dimensional positioning models.The major contents of this thesis are as follows:(1)Design the financial risk early warning indicators of motor industry in China.On the basis of the cash flow process of enterprises,the financial risk in motor industry can be distinguished from three perspectives which contain operational dimension,investment dimension and financing dimension and primary indicators can also be selected from three dimensions.In the end,monitoring indicators can be screened and selected from primary indicators by using difference examination,Pearson’s correlation analysis and gray correlation analysis.(2)Construct exponential models of financial risk early warning system in Chinese motor industry.Firstly,this thesis constructs three layers of exponential system including index layers of financial risk early warning system,individual indexes of financial risk early warning system and target indexes of financial risk early warning system.According to the judgment rules of the warning threshold of industrial financial risks and early warning levels,industrial financial risks can be divided into four levels containing no warning,slight warning,middle warning and serious warning to eventually construct positioning models of financial risk early warning system.(3)Empirical analysis.Using the data of listed companies in 2012-2016 to make a empirical analysis about the exponential model can locate and classify different levels of financial risks and then take measures to prevent risks after getting the warning indexes of financial risks.The innovation points of this thesis manifest in the following aspects:(1)According to the the process of cash flow in motor industry,the financial risks of motor industry can be divided into three dimensions which mainly include financial risk of operation,financial risk of investment and financial risk of financing.(2)Large limitations exist in the comparison of individual indicators.This thesis transforms monitoring indexes of financial risks in multiple industries into different forms of early warning indexes by using entropy method and other methods,which is more comparable.(3)Positioning models of financial risk early warning system can clearly observe the changes of the financial risks of motor industry in order to dynamically monitor the financial risks of the automobile manufacturing industry.