| Utility tunnel is also called "comprehensive pipe ditch" and "common ditch".It is a public tunnel used to lay municipal pipelines underground in a city and is called the lifeline of the city.The Utility tunnel is an important direction for the overall development of urban underground space,and it is also a concentrated expression of urban underground comprehensive operation capabilities.Judging from the current status of social and economic development,the construction of Utility tunnel can effectively improve the phenomenon of "the city looks at the sea" and "the aerial bird net type wire",it can also solve problems such as pipeline accident coupling disasters,pipeline burying safety hazards,etc.,and at the same time can improve the city’s comprehensive carrying capacity and improve the appearance of the city.However,even if the Utility tunnel can solve the problems of urban municipal management to a greater extent,its own risks are relatively large.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out effective risk management on the Utility tunnel project.The operation and maintenance stage of the Utility tunnel is the longest in the development,construction and operation of the integrated pipe gallery project.Effective risk management in the operation and maintenance stage can also reduce the cost of the participants of the Utility tunnel project and improve the project participants to a certain extent of industry status.Based on a full understanding of the operation and maintenance of the Utility Tunnel and risk and safety management,this paper establishes a risk assessment model suitable for the operation and maintenance stage of the Utility tunnel from the perspective of the project manager.Firstly,the basic principles of Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM)and Delphi method are used to initially identify the risk factors that exist in the operation and maintenance stage of the Utility tunnel.Through questionnaire survey method and expert investigation method,judge the occurrence probability and possible consequences of risk factors,analyze the reliability of the questionnaire data,and analyze the possible risk categories and risks in the operation and maintenance stage of the Utility tunnel under the condition of ensuring that the data is truly available.And than factors are initially screened.Secondly,combined with the ranking and management(RFRM)method to screen the identified risks multiple times,and finally establish an indicator with 5 criterion-level indicators and 21 factor-level indicators.Subsequently,the improved analytic hierarchy process and entropy method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights,combined with the ideal point method to improve the combination weighting method,and determine the optimal weights of the factor-level indicators.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the index and score of the criterion-level factors as the basis for the TOPSIS method to calculate the criterion-level risk ranking.Finally,the TOPSIS method is used to calculate the distance between the criterion-level indicators and the positive and negative ideal solutions and the relative closeness.On this basis,the Mahalanobis distance method is used to improve the TOPSIS method,and the risk ranking results of the two methods are compared and analyzed to establish a complete comprehensive risk evaluation model for the Utility tunnel.The research in this paper has established a practical method for the risk assessment of the Utility tunnel project in the operation and maintenance stage,the establishment of the model can not only judge the relative importance and relative weight of various index factors,but also help project managers to clearly predict project safety risks and take preventive measures against corresponding risks.At the same time,the model established can better promote the safety risk management of the Utility tunnel project,and promote the better and faster development of the Utility tunnel industry. |
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