Research On The Cooperative Degree Prediction Of Bohai Rim Port Group Composite System

Under the guidance of the "One Belt And One Road" strategy and the coordinated development strategy of Beijing,tianjin and hebei,the integration process of ports in the bohai rim region is accelerated,and the coordinated development of port groups has become an inevitable trend.As the only northern port group among the five major ports in China,the Bohai Rim port Group is characterized by numerous ports,abundant resources,gradual expansion in scale,extensive business scope and continuous improvement in the comprehensive capacity of each port group.However,due to the lack of coordination between ports and the low degree of linkage between ports,problems such as repeated construction of port infrastructure and poor competition of main business of ports appear in the Bohai Rim port group.Therefore,it is of great significance for the bohai Rim region government and relevant departments to make a reasonable plan for port construction and to improve the overall comprehensive competitiveness of the Bohai Rim port group to accurately predict the future change trend of port synergy.First of all,this paper analyzes the development status of the Bohai Sea port group,and analyzes the characteristics and problems of the development status of the Bohai Sea port group from the aspects of geographical location,construction scale,hinterland economy,port throughput,main business and cargo types,etc.Based on the calculation of port location quotient and port radiation intensity,the outward economic capacity and economic effect on hinterland of the four port subgroups are analyzed to provide a research basis for the establishment of evaluation index system for the coordinated development of port groups around bohai Sea.Secondly,according to the establishment principle of the index system and the analysis of the current situation of ports around the Bohai Sea,the evaluation index system for the collaborative development of ports around the Bohai Sea was established,and different models(SVR model and BI-LSTM model)were selected based on the characteristics of the historical time series data of different indexes to predict the index forecast value of each index in the next three years(2020-2022).Among them,the prediction experiment based on THE BI-LSTM model adopts the idea of cross cooperative prediction based on the data of several neighboring ports to predict the target port data.The best prediction model can be obtained by adjusting the parameters,and the MAPE value of the experimental accuracy is at least 4.1%.Finally,this paper calculates the order degree of each subsystem and the coordination degree of the whole system based on the evaluation index system and composite system coordination degree model of the Bohai Rim port group.The reasons for the variation trend of port group synergies are analyzed from the two stages of current synergies(2001-2019)and future synergies(2020-2022),and the development strategies of port group synergies are given according to the synergies,for reference by the government and relevant departments.