Research On Forecast And Development Strategy Of Container Throughput In Bohai Rim Port Group

In the tide of economic globalization,container transportation is the key to global trade competition.Presently,the Bohai Rim region is in the key period of the implementation of the "Belt One Road" Initiative and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration policy.The port group in the Bohai Rim region is an important economic and transportation hub,and its central strategic position is increasingly prominent.However,in the process of development,the problems of excessive capacity and optimal allocation of port resources are are increasing dramatically which are mainly caused by the inaccurate prediction of container throughput,which leads to poor port planning.The data of container throughput consists of linear,nonlinear,causal and other characteristics,affected by a variety of uncertain factors.Due to the many uncertain factors,the forecast of container throughput is a very necessary and challenging work.Under these terms,it is of great practical significance to make the regional port group accurately serve the current market demand,reasonably coordinate the regional resource allocation,and accurately predict the container throughput for the optimization of port resource allocation,improve port operation efficiency,reduce unnecessary pollution and so on.Considering the above circumstances,this thesis collates the historical data of container throughput of the Bohai Rim port group,analyzes its development status,studies from the perspective of container throughput prediction,and summarizes its prediction methods,and makes an empirical study on the prediction of container throughput of the Bohai Rim port group by comprehensively using prediction models with different characteristics.Its purpose is to provide data support and countermeasures for the future development of the Bohai Rim port group.The results of the thesis show that taking the container throughput as research object,the combined model has excellent fitting effect and high prediction accuracy.In the other aspect,the proposed countermeasures will promote the decision making of the container logistics optimization management of the Bohai Rim port group in the future.