Value Evaluation Of New Energy Enterprises Based On Combination Revenue Forecast Model

In recent years,problems such as ecological destruction and energy crises occur frequently.In order to solve the contradiction between economy and environmental protection,countries around the world are constantly trying to seek out solutions,and finally focus on the field of new energy.Due to the strong support of the government,many companies have poured into the new energy market to tap the development potential of the emerging market.Investors and enterprise management have also begun to pay attention to the value of new energy companies.The accuracy and objectivity of evaluation results will help them make rational investments and strategic decisions.However,our country has not yet established a complete evaluation system for value assessment of the new energy enterprises.And the evaluation methods used are also difficult to highlight the characteristics of the new energy industry,which have limitations.Therefore,on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of new energy enterprises,this article attempts to optimize and perfect the methods and models for the value evaluation of new energy enterprises.This article uses a combination of theoretical analysis and case analysis to research.Firstly,according to domestic and foreign enterprise value evaluation methods and income prediction models,the literature and theory are collated,and then the research status of new energy enterprise value assessment is analyzed.Secondly,this article briefly introduces several commonly used evaluation methods-cost method,market method,income method and option pricing method.Combined with the characteristics of the new energy industry,it has been analyzed and compared so as to lay a theoretical foundation for exploring the applicability of various evaluation methods to new energy companies.After further analysis of the industry profile,corporate characteristics and value performance of new energy companies,this article concludes that combining the EVA method based on the income portfolio forecasting model and the real option method can more accurately and completely reflect the value of new energy companies.Finally,this article selects Goldwind Enterprise,a leading company in the industry,as the representative company,briefly introducing the basic situation of Goldwind Enterprise and analyzing various financial and non-financial indicators that affect corporate value.The historical EVA value is calculated based on the historical financial situation of the company.Then the 18 influencing factors screened by mRMR,adding 2 evaluation indicators for new energy companies,are used to predict the value of the next five years with the gray forecast method,and the historical and predicted five-year influencing factors are substituted into the BP neural network to obtain the EVA value of the company in the next five years.And calculating EVA in the stable growth stage is worth the final existing value of the enterprise;The real option method is used to evaluate the overall value of the enterprise,into which substitutes the calculated value of existing assets.It includes the potential profitability value of Goldwind.Simultaneously,this article verifies the rationality of the evaluation results,that is,compared with the company’s market share price,it is concluded that Goldwind’s price is overestimated and the error is within a reasonable range.The evaluation results can more objectively and accurately reflect the company’s value creation capabilities.It can be seen that the EVA method based on the combination forecasting model and real option method evaluation model are feasible and effective when applied to the evaluation results of Goldwind.After the above research,this article finally draws two conclusions: First,the income portfolio forecasting model is introduced into the new energy enterprise’s EVA in the first time.Through the influence of internal and external factors of the enterprise on the enterprise value,the existing value of the enterprise is calculated and the enterprise value’s accuracy is further improved.Second,the real option method can measure the uncertainty of the company’s future investment projects.Substituting the company’s current value instead of total book assets into the real option method can improve the accuracy of the company’s value and more fully reflect the potential profitability included in the value of new energy companies.This paper introduces the combined forecasting model into the EVA evaluation of new energy companies for the first time,and divides the value of the company into existing value and potential value.It is innovative and has strong theoretical and practical significance.On the one hand,it enriches the research system of EVA evaluation method and its application in actual enterprises.On the other hand,it also provides a reference for the application of optimizing EVA and real option evaluation method in the new energy industry.