Research On The Valuation Of New Energy Vehicle Enterprises Based On Real Option

The "double carbon" strategy is strongly promoting China’s energy transformation,and the new energy vehicle industry has ushered in an important development opportunity in the energy transformation.As an emerging force in China’s automotive industry,new energy vehicle enterprises play an important role in improving the energy consumption structure,promoting green development and fostering economic growth.At present,China’s new energy vehicle enterprises are in a rapid growth stage,with unstable cash flows and many potential growth opportunities.Current valuation methods are lacking in analysing the above uncertainties,and tend to ignore the potential value of enterprises and the value of investment management flexibility,resulting in inaccurate valuations.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the valuation of new energy vehicle enterprises.Based on the real option method,this paper selects 12 new energy automobile enterprises,including BYD,SAIC,Azera and BAIC Blue Valley,as the research objects,collects and organizes the financial statement data of the enterprises from 2011 to 2021 to determine the parameter values,and uses the Schwartz-Moon valuation model combined with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the value of new energy automobile enterprises.The main contents of this paper are: Chapter 1:Introduction,analyzing the background of China’s vigorous development of new energy vehicles and the valuation problems faced by new energy vehicle enterprises,analyzing the significance of selecting the real option method,sorting out the current status of domestic and foreign research,and introducing the research content,research method and technical route of this paper.Chapter 2provides an overview of the basic theories and valuation methods,explaining the enterprise value valuation theory and real option theory as well as the concept,types and characteristics of real options,in addition to analyzing the enterprise value valuation method models and their respective applications.Chapter 3: Overview of new energy vehicle enterprises and selection of valuation methods,firstly defines new energy vehicle enterprises as enterprises with new energy vehicle production capacity and introduces the characteristics of such enterprises,secondly analyzes the sources of value and option characteristics of new energy vehicle enterprises,and based on the above analysis,evaluates the applicability of valuation methods.Chapter 4,Construction of SchwartzMoon valuation model,describes the basic principle,basic assumptions,calculation method and evaluation process of Schwartz-Moon model.In Chapter 5,the case study,the above-mentioned 12 new energy vehicle enterprises are selected as valuation objects,and the final values of the model parameters are determined separately based on the data of the enterprises’ annual financial statements.The results of the parameter calculations were brought into the Schwartz-Moon model and Monte Carlo simulations were performed on the appraised enterprises’ values.The Monte Carlo simulation pricing results were compared with the actual market value in circulation of the corresponding enterprises on the same day,and the deviations were calculated.In addition,sensitivity analysis was performed on the model parameters to identify the factors affecting the value of new energy vehicle enterprises.Finally,a reasonableness analysis is conducted based on the value assessment results of the 12 enterprises.Chapter 6 Research Conclusion and Countermeasure Suggestions.Translated with www.Deep L.com/Translator(free version)Research conclusions: First,new energy automobile enterprises have the characteristics of high growth,strong policy dependence,difficult cost control,large capital demand,high operational risk,future cash flow is unstable,with greater uncertainty.Second,the real option method is more suitable for the value evaluation of new energy vehicle enterprises,and the Schwartz-Moon model has more evaluation advantages in uncertainty processing than the Black-Scholes model and the binary tree pricing model.Thirdly,the assignment of model parameters is very important,and the sensitivity analysis shows that some parameters are sensitive to the results of enterprise value assessment.Countermeasures and suggestions: First,evaluation practitioners must compare and choose the value evaluation methods of new energy vehicle enterprises.Second,managers of new energy automobile enterprises must objectively judge enterprise value and correctly understand the development potential of enterprises.Third,investors must comprehensively analyze new energy vehicle enterprises,accurately judge their overall value,so as to reasonably determine investment and financing decisions.