Study On Water-Energy-Food Coupling And Coordinated Development In The Main Grain-producing Areas

Water,energy and food are the basic resources that affect human life and social development.In recent years,with the increase of population,the deterioration of climate,the shortage of resources and the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization,the research on WEF Nexus has gradually become a hot spot at home and abroad.On the basis of combing the relevant theories and analyzing the current situation of water,energy and food in the main grain-producing areas,this paper establishes the water-energy-food coupling and coordination evaluation index system,and uses the comprehensive evaluation model,the coupling coordination development model,the GM(1,1)model and the grey relational analysis model to make an empirical analysis on the coupling and coordinated development of water energy grain in the main grain-producing areas from 2002 to 2018.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The comprehensive evaluation index of WEF Nexus in main grain-producing areas is on the rise.The growth rate of comprehensive evaluation index of food system is the fastest,followed by that of energy system,and that of water system is the slowest.On the whole,the development of food system in main grain-producing areas is better than that of water system and energy system.(2)The overall coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system in the main grain-producing areas is improving,but there is still a phenomenon that the spatial development of water-energy-food coupling coordination is unbalanced.The coupling coordination degree of provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is growing faster than that of Northeast China and Huang Huai Hai.In the next five years,the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system in major grain-producing areas will continue to increase,but there are still bottlenecks in some areas and the development is slow.(3)The influence of each subsystem and its internal factors on the coordinated development of WEF Nexus in the main grain-producing areas is not the same.The order of the influence degree of each subsystem on the coordinated development of WEF Nexus in the main grain-producing areas is food system,energy system and water system.Precipitation,surface water resources and groundwater resources are the three water factors that have the greatest impact on the coordinated development level of the general system in the major grain-producing areas.The three energy factors are the energy consumption per 10000 yuan GDP,the proportion of energy consumption in the tertiary industry,and the transfer and import from other provinces.The three food factors that have the greatest impact on the coordinated development of the general system in the major grain-producing areas are the effective irrigation area,grain imports and per capita net income of farmers.Based on the conclusions,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as establishing and improving the coordination mechanism among relevant departments and the early warning mechanism for the coordinated development of water energy food,and looks forward to the future research direction.