Reseach The Investment Value Assessment Of Industrial Cogeneration Based On QNIS And Real Options

Cogeneration is the standard infrastructure of modern industrial park,which can generate useful heat and electricity by using heat engine or power station through the effective use of fuel thermodynamics.As an industrial process technology,industrial cogeneration plays a very important role in the modern industrial park.Only when the investor fully assessment its investment value and formulates a reasonable project construction scheme before making the decision,can it maximize its economic and social value.If the expected heat consumption of the project is too optimistic before investment,it is easy to appear "big horse pulling small car" after the project is put into operation;on the contrary,if the expected heat load of the project is too pessimistic,it is easy that the equipment configuration and supply capacity can not meet the heat load demand of the park.Therefore,the best way to realize the investment value of the project is to fulfil the reasonable assessment of the heat load.This paper first analyzes the application of traditional investment value evaluation methods [based on QNIS [Q: QA(Qualitative analysis),N: NPV(Net present value method),I: IRR(Internal rate of return),S: SA(Sensitivity analysis)] in the investment value evaluation of industrial cogeneration project,and explains the advantages of its life-cycle value evaluation and the disadvantages of its uncertainty assessment value evaluation.Secondly,this paper studies the advantages of real option binary tree value evaluation model in the evaluation of industrial cogeneration investment value,and points out that there are some problems in the application process,such as the growth probability under risk neutral and the difficulty in the value calculation of many non key parameters.The exponential smoothing method is applied to the value of growth probability under risk neutral,and the industry experience value calculated method is integrated into the calculation of non key parameters.Thirdly,from the perspective of project decision-making process promotion,this paper explores the establishment of an investment decision-making method based on QNIS and simplified parameter real option,so as to achieve the reasonable evaluation of project investment value.Finally,this paper applies the segmented evaluation and decision-making method to make investment decision-making suggestions for an industrial cogeneration project,and compares it with the traditional investment decision-making suggestions based on net present value,so that the value information of the project can be more deeply excavated,and the investors can have a clearer understanding of the investment prospect of the project.