Passenger Flow Forecast And Post Evaluation Of Hohhot Rail Transit Line 1

With the rapid development of China’s social economy,the scale of cities is constantly expanding,and the urban agglomerations with close economic ties are also quietly rising.The travel demand of urban residents is also developing in the direction of diversification,personalization,convenience,comfort and speediness.Urban rail transit,as a public transportation tool with large capacity,high speed,good comfort and low cost,has become the focus of urban transportation planning and development.Urban rail transit is not only an important way to relieve the traffic pressure in the city,but also a fast way to strengthen the connection between cities.However,urban rail transit infrastructure construction and later operation need a lot of manpower and material resources,and once the infrastructure is completed,it can not be adjusted in a certain period of time.Therefore,reasonable planning and appropriate construction of urban rail transit is a difficult problem in the development of urban rail transit.Passenger flow is an important decision-making basis for urban rail transit planning,construction and operation organization,and its prediction results have always been a hot topic.Accurate forecast of urban rail transit passenger flow is helpful to formulate reasonable urban rail transit development planning and operation organization strategy.This paper first analyzes the importance of passenger flow forecasting to the operation of rail transit in Hohhot.Then,starting from the theoretical basis of passenger flow forecasting,it introduces a variety of passenger flow forecasting methods,and it also pointed out the shortcomings of the four-stage forecasting method commonly used in China,and introduced the content and purpose of the post-traffic forecast evaluation.Secondly,it introduces the traffic status of Hohhot and the basic conditions of passenger flow prediction,builds a model that meets the passenger flow prediction of Hohhot rail transit,builds a trip generation model,a trip distribution model,a mode division model,and a traffic distribution model.After that,the construction of floating population,External models such as special attraction points are used to improve the compatibility between the model prediction area and the external area.Finally,the reliability of the model was tested in combination with actual data,and the post-evaluation method based on norm gray correlation was used to comprehensively evaluate the passenger flow prediction results,analyze the differences of various indicators,and analyze the difference between the predicted passenger flow results and the actual operating passenger flow.The reason for the larger deviation.The improvement suggestions drawn from the results of the post-evaluation analysis in this paper are to consider more factors that may affect travel distribution and travel generation;consider the transfer of passenger flows between different modes of transportation;change the OD distribution method;adopt a variety of survey techniques;fully consider policies and The impact of service levels.