The Influence Of Weather On Public Bicycle Usage

In actual life,people usually choose bicycles for short-and medium-distance trips.However,because cyclists are exposed to outdoor environments for a long time,they are extremely susceptible to weather factors such as precipitation,high temperature,low temperature,and strong wind.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the influence of weather factors on the amount of bicycle trips.The existing literature mainly uses basic statistical analysis or traditional regression models to study the impact of weather factors on travel volume.Accordingly,based on the card data of Capital Bike in Washington,this article systematically studies the relationship between weather and bicycle trips under different time periods,travel distances,and travel times,and builds a time-space effect model to deeply explore the impact of weather factors on bicycle trips..The main work is as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of variance model,explore the significance of the impact of weather factors and their interaction on the amount of bicycle trips,and compare the differences in the impact of weather factors under different time dimensions,travel distances and travel times.The results of the model show that the most significant weather factors affecting the amount of bicycle trips are precipitation,temperature,and wind speed;and there are interactions between temperature and wind speed during working days,and summer precipitation and temperature and wind speed;the longer the travel distance and travel time,the weather factors have an impact on bicycles.The impact of travel volume is more significant.(2)Based on the negative binomial regression model,in-depth study of the relationship between weather and bicycle trip volume.The weather is divided into basic weather and severe weather,and visibility is used as an independent variable to construct a negative binomial regression model of travel volume to analyze the impact of various weather factors on bicycle travel volume.The model results show that when the independent variable changes by one unit,the weather factors that have the greatest impact on the amount of bicycle trips are,in order,basic weather such as temperature,visibility,precipitation,and severe weather such as extreme heat and heavy rain;The difference in the impact of bicycle trips between different distances and different travel time ranges is significant.Under the same weather conditions,the longer the travel distance and travel time,the greater the reduction in the number of trips;compared with spring,the amount of bicycle trips in autumn generally has Compared with weekdays and non-holidays,the amount of bicycle trips on weekends and holidays will decrease,and the longer the travel distance and travel time,the greater the decrease in the amount of trips.(3)Exploring the relationship between weather and station trip volume based on the spatial regression model of station trip volume considering time-space effects.Taking the public bicycle station as the spatial analysis unit and taking the amount of trips at the station as the research object,the spatial lag model,the spatial autocorrelation model and the spatial Dubin model considering the spatial relevance of the station are constructed,and they are combined with the traditional panel data random effect model.Contrast.The model results show that the significance of the land-use attributes in the regression model results that consider the spatial correlation of the stations is more obvious,which shows that the trip volume of this site(dependent variable)and the trip volume of similar sites are spatially related;considering the time-space effect Among the regression models,the random effects spatial Dubin model(SDM-FE)has the best results,which further shows that the changes in the amount of trips at a site are not only affected by the independent variables of the site,but also the land attributes(independent variables)of similar sites.The number of trips on the site has a significant impact.