Research On Water Supply Management Model Of Shale Gas Development Based On Uncertainty Analysis

The shortage of water resources has become one of the major problems facing mankind in the 21 st century.As one of the important inputs of energy production,under the background of increasing energy demand,the availability of water resources makes sustainable energy production face more severe challenges.In all types of energy,unconventional natural gas,especially shale gas development,is regarded as an important bridge energy to promote the energy system from high-carbon energy represented by coal to low-carbon energy represented by renewable energy.However,shale gas development needs more water resources than conventional natural gas,which makes water resources become a key factor limiting shale gas development.Reasonable allocation of limited water resources is conducive to the coordinated development of the economic and social environment in shale gas development region.In this study,firstly,the uncertain factors prevailing in the shale gas development water supply management system are analyzed;then the interval two-stage stochastic programming model is used to optimize the allocation of water resources in the shale gas development system with uncertain factors Further,the traditional interval two-stage stochastic programming model does not consider system risks and has limitations.Therefore,this study improves the traditional model and establishes an interval two-stage robust optimization model based on the original model;finally,the model is applied Shale gas development water supply resource system in Laifeng County,Hubei Province.The research results show that(1)the interval two-stage stochastic programming model can give the optimal water distribution plan according to the uncertainty conditions.The plan results include multiple water sources(surface water,groundwater,and reused water)in the shale gas development area to multiple wells The optimal water distribution target value,water shortage and optimal water distribution of the site,so as to ensure the water demand of each well site and avoid the production reduction of the well site due to water shortage;(2)pre-distribution of water supply for shale gas development The objective was to conduct sensitivity analysis,mainly comparing the situation of the proportion of recycled water under different conditions,and concluded that the current domestic shale gas development technology still needs to be improved.In the future development,the recycled water should be used in the total supply of shale gas development water supply The proportion in the system gradually increases;(3)The interval two-stage robust optimization model can express the attitude of decision makers towards system risk.The robust coefficient increases and the system benefits decrease,but the water shortage decreases,which reduces the system risk.The more stable the system.In general,this study allocates multiple water resources to different shale gas development well sites,and provides decision makers with shale gas development water supply resource management schemes in different scenarios.There are certain innovations in the identification and selection of uncertainties in the management system of water supply resources for shale gas development,and for the first time,the interval two-stage stochastic programming model is applied to the optimal allocation model of water supply resources for shale gas development.The sustainability of gas development and the coordinated development of the economic and social environment provide some theoretical support.