Study On Optimization Model Of Water Resource System Under Uncertainty

In recent years, with the rapid development of the society and its economy, the shortage of water resources is serious, and the competition for water is increasing dramatically, water resource management that given priority to with efficient use meets huge challenge. Therefore, obtaining economic benefit needs to protect environment and save water resource when human want to plan and manage water resource. There are a lot of multiple uncertainties and dynamic complexities existing in water resource system, and it is a complex process, so the management and planning process of water resources system involve in many factors. However, previous model and method of water management is limited. In consideration of resources, environment, social and economic mutual relations, based on it, the study applies the advanced uncertainty optimization method to the system of water resources, in order to solve the inherent uncertainties and complexities, and provide technical support for the generation of decision scheme.Firstly, we describe the traditional interval two-stage stochastic programming model(ITSP) in detail, in this study, changing the traditional concept, we divide the whole system into two processes(mining process and distribution process), two stages(the first stage: the predefined stage and the second stage: punishment stage), making the total cost minimum, and then the interval two-stage stochastic allocation(IITSA) model of water resource system planning and management under uncertainty that we have improved is set up.Applied to the established models in an assumed water management system, the managers are responsible for allocating multi-water(surface water and groundwater) exploited by the department of water supply to multi-departments(domestic, productive and ecological), in order to meet their demand and achieve the goal of the harmonious development of economy, society and environment.The results of IITSA model show that:(1) the proposed model can deal with multiple dynamic complexities and uncertainties reasonably and effectively exist in water resource system, the optimal water distribution scheme under better situation and bad situation compromise system cost and against the risk and help managers to maximize avoid risk;(2) the above model can balance system economic benefits and stabilities of water resource system;(3) in addition, the model canalso provide effective links for economic problems that may cause and making management system.The developed model is applied to hypothetical case study of water resources management to demonstrate its potential application. All in all, the interval two-stage stochastic allocation model under uncertainty can help decision-makers manage water resource, and provide theoretical basis and decision basis, and finally reach the purpose of rational utilization of water resources and coordinated development of social- economic- ecological environment.