Research On The Financial Risk And Countermeasure Of Passenger Car Dual-Credit Spread Trade

The development of new energy vehicles(NEV)has gradually become the main solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the world.China promulgated the dualcredit policy for passenger cars in 2017,its goal is to establish a long-term intrinsic incentive and restraint mechanism for enterprises,promote the healthy development of the NEV industry.However,there are financial risks in the passenger car dual-point transaction market,especially the risk of fluctuations in the price of NEV credits.These risks are not conducive to the development of the NEV industry.Within this context,this study hopes to propose a risk avoidance method-the spread trade of NEV credits.This paper(1)reviews current related research situation,(2)discusses the current policy situation of NEV market in different countries,the dilemma of Chinese dual-credit policy for passenger cars,(3)analyzes the financial risk of NEV credits and proposes a risk avoidance method,(4)sets up a game model of China passenger cars’ dual-credit market,(5)conducts scenario analysis to judge the effectiveness of risk aversion measures,(6)performs sensitivity analysis.The research results show that: the spread trading of NEV credits can(1)reduce the financial risk of passenger car dual-point transaction market,with a maximum reduction of 58.3%;(2)Accelerating the total output of NEV production in the society,with a maximum growth rate of 32.2%;(3)Increase the sales profit of NEV credits for auto companies,with a maximum growth rate of 36.55%;(4)The stricter credit calculation method in the previous period is conducive to reducing the financial risk in the dual-credit market.