| Automotive industry in China is facing severe challenges of sustainable development.Increasingly stringent fuel consumption regulations and significant electrification are of vital importance for passenger vehicles(PV)sector.‘The interim measures on the joint management of Coporate Averge Fuel Consumption(CAFC)and new energy vehicle(NEV)credist(draft)’ newly introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is an innovative exploration to regulate automakers via double restraints of CAFC and NEV credits,as well as one-way compensation between this two kinds of credits as complying flexibility.This projected implementation effects are studied from the perspective of the industry,corporates and products.Meanwhile,improvements for the regulations are proposed for the government.First,concepts of CAFC and NEV credit regulations are comprehensively researched and the relevance and independence of the two are revealed.Suggestions on the short,medium and long term development of this policy package are proposed accordingly.Second,an industry-level quantitative model is established to analyze compliance situations and potential influences on energy consumption.It is found that dual-credit regulations relax the CAFC regulations for conventional gasoline vehicles(CGV)by 5% to 32% during 2017 and 2025.The ‘leakage effect’ of potential energy savings vary from 4% to 27% during 2020 and 2025,which not only reduces the difficulty for CGV fleet to comply,but also offsets energy-saving benefits of NEV fleet and even decreases the whole industry’s energy efficiency.The privileges for NEVs in CAFC calculation act as the major releaser while relaxation effects of one-way compensation from NEV credits to CAFC credits gradually come out.The most important influencing factor of the exact relaxation effects and ‘leakage effect’ is the market situation of NEVs,and different alternatives to take consumed electricity into account can adjust the effects within limits.Besides,CGV fleet determines the vast majority of the integrated energy consumption of annual new sales until 2025,thus it is critical to pose strict regulations on average fuel consumption of CGV fleet.The effects of NEV fleet to lower down the whole industry’s energy consumption is expected to stand out in the medium and long term.Third,the cost effectiveness of NEVs with various electric ranges to earn NEV credits in 2018-2020 is fully compared.Based on the material costs,the cost effectiveness of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEV)is worse than battery electric vehicles(BEV)and a BEV with 350 km electric range is the most cost-effective choice for automakers in 2018-2020.Finally,typical automakers’ complying situations in 2017-2020 as well as corresponding alternatives are provided as case study.In view of financial loss of halted production from the internal perspective of automakers if failure to comply,CAFC credit value varies significantly among noncompliance automakers under different situations while NEV credit value generally equals the profit of one CGV.Seeing that the NEV credit trading market is hard to forecast with diverse uncertainties,credit trading is proposed for short-term complementary compliance strategy but not a sustainable way to keep competitive.The dual-credit policy package further poses challenges to automakers’ product portfolios and technical decision-making together with more flexibility to comply.Automakers should never relax the optimization for the portfolios of energy-saving technologies for CGV fleet and product portfolios of NEV fleet under increasingly stringent regulations,especially for large-scale PV automakers.In all,it is proposed to adjust the regulations in time so that CAFC regulation and NEV credit regulation can perform their respective roles.The influences of NEVs’ market situation on CAFC compliance should be fully considered and supplementary means should be taken to ensure normal operation of NEV credit trading market. |
