| Integrated energy system is based on the cascade use of energy,refrigeration,heating and power generation of the intensification of the integrated power system,not only the energy conservation and environmental protection,reasonable utilization of resources,joint income is high,the economy is outstanding,thanks to global warming,environmental degradation,energy efficient utilization and energy problem has received the widespread attention of supply and demand,to achieve energy,economy and environmental protection has become a global consensus,with the mass use of natural gas and other clean energy,regional comprehensive energy will become one of the most promising energy supply mode.In the regional integrated energy system in the process of development,construction and use,reasonable forecast regional comprehensive energy,planning and evolution will bring huge economic savings,this article in view of the present comprehensive prediction model data inaccuracies,energy planning model is not accurate and comprehensive research the problem of inadequate energy system evolution,conducted a comprehensive energy prediction,planning and research of the dynamic evolution method.This paper conducted the comprehensive prediction research of energy system,contrast analyzed several kinds of prediction methods for the environment,on the basis of grey prediction model and residual error correction,is proposed based on the gray linear regression weighted fuzzy chain model,and the traditional grey prediction model and proposed in this paper based on the gray linear regression＿weighted fuzzy chain model for example,proved in this paper,based on the gray linear regression＿weighted fuzzy chain model accuracy is higher,based on this,In this paper,the electricity and gas consumption in a new district of Liaoning province from 2021 to 2040 are predicted by using the grey linear regression weighted fuzzy Markov chain model.Secondly,this paper carries out regional comprehensive energy planning research and conducts example analysis.Established the mathematical model of integrated energy system equipment,and established the mathematical model of the integrated energy system planning,including objective function,constraint condition,etc.,based on the physical model and mathematical model of integrated energy system,Combined with the energy consumption situation of something a new city in Liaoning province,designed a node contains 18 nodes distribution network and 11 gas pipe network of integrated energy system,and analyzes the same node and load of the CCHP(Combined Cooling Heat and Power)integrated energy system and the cost of traditional energy system,The planning results show that the total cost of CCHP integrated energy system is lower than the construction cost of traditional energy system.At the end of the paper has carried out the dynamic evolution mechanism of regional integrated energy system and the simulation analysis research,draw lessons from the evolution of grid method,the evolution of the integrated energy system model is put forward,and gives the analysis of flow diagram,at the same time to simulate plant growth algorithm is introduced into the integrated energy system,the simulated plant growth algorithm,the evolution model based on the proposed integrated energy system,for something new city in Liaoning province based on the analysis of energy system evolution,the integrated energy system of power distribution network in 2025 and 2040 and the evolution of the gas pipe network topology.And contrast analysis of the CCHP system and the cost of traditional energy system evolution 20,evolution results show that the total cost of the CCHP system and purchase gas cost is less than the traditional energy system cost of purchasing gas,proved the advantage of CCHP system in the aspect of economy,this paper puts forward the integrated energy system prediction,planning and evolution method for the construction and evolution of the integrated energy system provides a certain reference value. |
PDF Full Text Request