Integrated Energy System Planning Considering Uncertainty

The integrated energy system integrates multi-energy flow networks of cold,heat,electricity,and gas,which can realize the cascade utilization of energy,realize the coupling and complementarity between multi-energy networks,and have significant advantages in reducing energy consumption,saving costs,and environmental protection.Under the background of vigorous development of integrated energy,the calculation results and decision-making plans of integrated energy system planning directly affect the advantages and application development of integrated energy.Therefore,to carry out research on integrated energy system planning and to rationally plan the types and capacities of equipment in the system is of great significance to give play to the advantages of the integrated energy system in terms of economy,environmental protection and energy efficiency.Based on the current research status and related theories of integrated energy system planning,the following work has been carried out:First,a mathematical model of typical equipment in the integrated energy system was established,including power generation equipment fans,photovoltaics and gas turbines,refrigeration equipment absorption refrigerators and electric refrigerators,heating equipment waste heat boilers and gas boilers,energy storage devices,batteries and heat storage groove;Carry out modeling and analysis on the variablecondition characteristics of gas turbines and absorption refrigeration,and adopt dynamic mathematical models for energy storage devices,and thus form a more comprehensive integrated energy system architecture。Then,an integrated energy system planning optimization model was established.and the optimization objective was to consider the comprehensive evaluation indicators of system economy,energy efficiency and environmental protection,and the mixed integer programming method was used to solve the problem,and an integrated energy system planning method was formed.Based on this method,the influence law of system networking mode,energy storage device and natural gas price on system planning and design results is studied.Next,considering the load uncertainty factors,a robust optimization method is adopted to establish a robust planning model,and the influence of a single load uncertainty factor on system planning and design is analyzed;Further,considering the uncertainty of load and the uncertainty of renewable energy intensity,Monte Carlo stochastic simulation technology is used to deal with the two uncertain factors;Established a comprehensive energy system planning model,and analyzed the influence of two uncertain factors on the results of system planning and design;Finally,the application of the two methods in dealing with the uncertainty of the integrated energy system is compared and analyzed.Finally,load simulations for buildings in different regions,and according to the environmental resource situation,load demand and energy price of different regions to carry out the integrated energy system planning case analysis;Further,integrated the mathematical model and planning method established in this paper to form a comprehensive energy system planning software system,and designed the planning software page;Based on the corresponding planning example,the core functions of each page in the planning software system are demonstrated.This software system has laid a certain foundation for the subsequent integrated energy system planning.