Research On Planning Of Electric Gas Energy System Under Uncertain Factors

Currently,improving energy efficiency and promoting the clean supply of energy are core issues in the development of the energy society.To achieve these goals,there is increasing attention on Integrated Energy Systems(IES)that allow for the deep coupling of multiple energy resources such as electricity,gas,and heat,enabling coordinated use and increased consumption of renewable energy.Therefore,the multienergy complementary IES will become one of the main energy models in the future.There is deep coupling between multiple energy sources in IES and uncertainty factors at both the supply and demand ends,which makes planning and operational management of IES extremely complex.This article focuses on the optimization planning method for IES that can adapt to uncertain factors and conducts in-depth research on the joint system of the electric-gas energy network and energy hub.The following important conclusions are drawn:(1)The operating characteristics of key equipment in the electric-gas energy system were analyzed and modeled.The electric-gas energy network model was constructed,and the transmission line flow model was built based on the direct current power flow method.The natural gas pipeline flow model was linearized using the piecewise linearization method.The operating characteristics of energy production,conversion,and storage equipment were analyzed,and their mathematical models were built based on their characteristics.(2)A stochastic planning model for energy hub capacity configuration based on improved k-means scene reduction was proposed.Based on stochastic planning theory,considering uncertainty in photovoltaic power output and load fluctuations,a mixed integer linear programming-based energy hub planning model was established.The scene reduction technique based on improved k-means clustering was used to reduce annual data to an effective number of scenarios.The resulting planning solution has high economic efficiency under the premise of safe operation in random scenarios.(3)A coordinated planning model for the electric-gas energy network and energy hub considering source-load uncertainty was proposed.Based on stochastic planning and robust optimization theory,a two-stage robust optimization planning model for the electric-gas energy network and energy hub was constructed using the polyhedral uncertainty set to characterize the uncertainty of photovoltaic power output and load.The column and constraint generation algorithm(C&CG)was used to decompose the two-stage robust optimization planning model into a main planning problem and a running sub-problem.The Mc Cormick method was used to linearize bilinear terms in the running sub-problem,transforming the original problem into a mixed integer linear programming main problem and running sub-problem.