Fuzzy Random Optimal Dispatching Of Microgrid Considering Double Uncertainties Of EV

Microgrid can effectively allocate all kinds of power resources,not only can effectively deal with the adverse disturbance of renewable energy to the power grid,fully absorb the electric energy generated by renewable clean energy,but also has the advantage of flexible dispatching compared with power grid.However,with the popularity of EV,EV access to microgrid brings many difficulties to system dispatching.Based on this,this thesis conducts related research on the optimal dispatch mechanism and model of EV access to microgrid.The main research work is as follows:(1)Comprehensively consider the composition structure and power demand of the microgrid system,establish the power model and dispatch cost model of wind turbines,photovoltaic power generation systems,micro-gas turbine and battery,and define the related behaviors of EVs and establish EV charging and discharging models.(2)Aiming at the problems of insufficient utilization of resources in the microgrid system under a single time scale and errors in wind,solar and load forecasts,a rolling dispatch mechanism for microgrids under dual time scales was formulated.Firstly,based on the historical wind,solar and load forecast data,establish a wind,solar,and load forecast error model,and then analyze the law of wind,solar and load forecast errors over time;Secondly,the controllable scheduling resources in microgrid are analyzed and classified according to their response characteristics,so as to determine the time and mode of scheduling resources participating in scheduling;Finally,considering the variation of wind,solar and load prediction error with time and the response characteristics of controllable scheduling resources,a day-ahead-day rolling dispatch mechanism for microgrid was formulated.(3)Considering the uncertainty influence of EV driving behavior and participation in discharge dispatching,the EV dual uncertainty model is established.On the one hand,the uncertainty model of EV driving behavior is established by combining statistical data and random theory;on the other hand,the uncertainty model of EV response is established by combining supply elasticity theory and fuzzy mathematics theory.Furthermore,the EV uncertainty charge and discharge model of microgrid before and during the day is established.(4)Based on the rolling scheduling mechanism of microgrid and the dual uncertainty model of EV,the static scheduling model of microgrid before day is established by using fuzzy random programming method,and the intra-day rolling scheduling model of microgrid with scheduling cost,user income and planned deviation.At the same time,considering various scheduling scenarios in off-grid mode and grid-connected mode,the genetic algorithm based on fuzzy random simulation is used to solve the problem,and the effectiveness and superiority of rolling scheduling mechanism and fuzzy random optimization scheduling model of microgrid are verified by comparative experiments.