Evaluation And Scenario Prediction Of Flood Protection Supply-demand Based On The Theory Of Ecosystem Services

In the context of the emergence of urbanization risks and frequent floods,territorial and spatial planning has gradually paid attention to the development of safety and resilience.Traditional engineering measures are gradually being replaced by ecological measures.Various ecological planning measures are being carried out,but they have also exposed the lack of assessment of flood control capacity and inundation risk.Due to the long-term implementation of ecological measures,long-term risk prediction is very important to optimize planning methods and clarify planning directions.In particular,accurate spatial identification and scenario prediction are needed to provide support.In related research at home and abroad,ecosystem services have gradually moved from theoretical research to practice and applied to the discipline of planning.Accurate spatial quantitative assessment of flood control capacity supply and flood risk demand from the perspective of ecosystem services has important theoretical and practical value for predicting potential flood risk changes,revealing the temporal and spatial distribution of supply and demand,and guiding the planning of ecological flood control measures.Therefore,this study starts from the core concepts of ecosystem services,flood control supply,and flood control demand,and through conceptual interpretation and research progress overview,discusses relevant theories and research methods for flood control supply and demand assessment from the perspective of ecosystem services.Taking Xiamen as the research object,based on the supply and demand theory of ecosystem services,supported by meteorological data,geographic data,socioeconomic data,and related planning,a methodological framework for comprehensive assessment of the supply and demand of ecosystems for flood control,combined with urban development driving factors and ecology Element planning for scenario simulation.The current situation assessment part uses the ecosystem flood control score matrix and hydrological runoff and inundation simulation models to evaluate the current ecological flood control supply and demand in Xiamen City,and analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of the supply and demand level.In the future scenario simulation part,using artificial neural network models and cellular automata,setting 2030 as the target year,designing three scenarios of natural growth,development priority,and ecological priority,and deriving the land and population distribution under different scenarios,and then predicting Future changes in flood control supply and demand.Research indicates:(1)The supply-demand assessment framework can effectively identify differences in flood control space and predict future trends;the overall level of flood control services that the ecosystem can provide is low,and the spatial layout is scattered,which tends to decrease with the development of the city;the demand for flood control is concentrated in the future The overall flood runoff is reduced,the flood reduction capacity of the ecosystem needs to be improved,and micro-ecological transformation is required.(2)The degree of matching between supply and demand is polarized,and the spatial distribution,land use,and population impacts under different scenarios are significantly different,and effective intervention is required;the ecological priority scenario has a relatively obvious maintenance effect on flood control supply capacity and the matching degree of supply and demand,especially reflected in In guiding land use and population growth,ecological constraints have played an effective role in the balance of supply and demand.In view of the low level of supply,poor spatial matching,and high potential risks of Xiamen’s ecosystem flood control services,future planning needs to be improved from both the technical and theoretical levels: on the one hand,the overall system must be improved,and the building of a resilient land,Introduce natural means,attach importance to weak units,and guide the development of man and land.On the other hand,it is necessary to strengthen departmental linkage,implement resilient management,explore standard updates,and increase publicity and guidance.The whole thesis contains about 48000 words,66 pictures and charts.