| The virtual power plant can realize the flexible and coordinated dispatch and management of various decentralized resources,and at the same time can realize the interconnection,conversion and utilization of multiple energy sources,and coordinated optimization,so as to effectively improve the regional comprehensive energy efficiency level and reduce environmental pollution.It has gradually become a response to China’s development.It is one of the important means of high energy consumption and high pollution in the process,so it has received extensive attention from the academic community.However,there are still some shortcomings in the comprehensive energy efficiency evaluation and operation planning methods of virtual power plants.Therefore,this paper studies the virtual power plant operation planning strategy considering comprehensive energy efficiency,and the specific content is as follows:(1)Aiming at the improvement of the comprehensive energy efficiency of the virtual power plant,a virtual power plant operation planning strategy considering the comprehensive energy efficiency is proposed.Based on the pan-exhaust analysis method,a comprehensive energy efficiency pan-exhaust index suitable for virtual power plant energy efficiency assessment and can achieve multi-energy and multi-dimensional factor overall measurement is proposed;the virtual power plant’s comprehensive energy flow distribution entropy index is innovatively proposed to reflect the virtual power plant’s interior The balance of energy distribution.A two-tier operation planning model for virtual power plants is established.The upper layer aims at maximizing comprehensive energy efficiency to solve the problem of constant capacity of multiple types of equipment,and the lower layer aims at maximizing the entropy of comprehensive energy flow distribution to solve the location problem of multiple types of equipment.Joint optimization of the upper and lower levels to obtain the optimal operation planning scheme of the virtual power plant.(2)Considering that the virtual power plant investment has the characteristics of phased and multi-phased,a phased operation planning strategy of virtual power plant based on real options is proposed.From the perspective of real options,various real options characteristics contained in virtual power plant project investment are analyzed.Taking into account the uncertainty of energy price changes during the operating cycle of virtual power plants,a Brownian motion model of energy price changes is established to characterize the uncertainty,and Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate the change process.The staged operation planning model of virtual power plant based on real options is established,so as to solve the optimal operation planning strategy of virtual power plant in the entire operation cycle.(3)Considering the influence of my country’s long-term energy development policy on the development trend of virtual power plant planning,a system dynamics model for the analysis of virtual power plant long-term operation planning is established.Starting from the basic principles of system dynamics,the applicability of system dynamics in this problem is analyzed.A system dynamics model including the benefit analysis subsystem,the investment construction subsystem,the operation subsystem,and the comprehensive energy efficiency analysis subsystem is constructed.Based on the perspective of long-term development,the long-term development trend of the virtual power plant is analyzed.The development of the virtual power plant is affected by internal and external factors.By setting up a variety of policy simulation scenarios,it can effectively analyze the virtual power plant under different policies.development trend.The results of this paper can provide a new comprehensive energy efficiency evaluation method and operation planning strategy for the currently actively developed virtual power plant,and provide a certain reference for the planning and operation of the virtual power plant in the future. |
