Demand Identification And Distribution Characteristics Analysis Of New Shared Public Transportation System

The new shared public transportation is a shared travel mode that adapts to the individualized and diversified travel demand of residents in the new era.However,existing research focuses more on the dynamic adjustment and optimization of routes,and there is less research on the demand identification of the new shared public transportation.Therefore,this article aims to use mobile phone signaling data to deeply explore the travel behavior and travel characteristics of urban residents,and determine the potential transfer demand and distribution of new shared public transportation based on urban residents’ travel choice behavior and decision-making willingness.In terms of urban residents’ travel behavior and characteristics analysis,this paper proposes a trajectory stop point recognition algorithm based on spatio-temporal clustering and the user’s job and residence discrimination rules based on mobile phone signaling data,and extracts the user’s commuting travel OD.Then proposes the map matching algorithm based on probability decision to match the user’s travel trajectory information to the urban road network.Finally,feature parameters are extracted from the user demand aspect and the road supply aspect,and a machine learning model is constructed to divide the modal to analyze the characteristics of users.In terms of the preliminary selection of the service area of the new shared public transportation system,this article comprehensively considers the selection of the new shared public transportation service area from three levels: the actual travel needs of urban residents,the supply capacity of the existing public transportation system,and the service characteristics of the new shared public transportation system.Considering the functional positioning and service advantages of the new shared public transportation,select a transportation community with suitable distance and meeting road conditions for research.And for the areas where the current supply of conventional buses is weak and the contradiction between supply and demand is large,priority is given to selecting new shared public transportation service areas.In terms of research on the influence of new shared public transportation transfer intentions,this paper analyzes the decision-making transfer behavior that affects users from multiple perspectives,and selects psychological latent variables to design RP&SP questionnaires based on individual perceptions,and constructs a structural equation model to analyze the effects of various influencing factors mechanism.The study found that the factors that influence the shift of users who do not use travel modes to the new shared public transportation are different.Car users have higher requirements for convenience and punctuality;while bus and subway users value the riding environment and comfort more.In terms of the estimation of the potential transfer demand of new shared public transportation and the analysis of its distribution characteristics,this paper selects significant influencing factors to construct an ordered Logit model for different travel modes,and predicts its transfer probability.Among them,the transfer probability of bus users is 52.67%,and that of car and subway users is 40.92% and 44.75%,respectively.Finally,based on the transition probabilities of different modes,the potential transfer traffic volume between the new shared public transportation primaries is estimated,and its space distribution characteristics are analyzed.