Research On Runway Capacity Assessment Based On Runway Occupancy Time Prediction

With the rapid increase of China’s civil aviation traffic,the national civil aviation flight delay rate was as high as 18.35% in 2019,in which runway capacity is an important factor limiting the growth of air traffic flow,and there are problems such as large investment in new airports and runways and long construction period,so how to improve runway capacity based on the existing runways is getting more and more attention.Countries such as Europe and the United States have proposed the reclassification of wake interval and pushed ICAO to introduce the new RECAT standard to reduce the wake interval to improve runway capacity,and also proposed the concept of dynamic wake interval,which requires high precision prediction of runway occupation time to improve runway utilization efficiency on the basis of ensuring safety.In order to accurately analyze the runway occupancy time of aircraft,ASDE-X operational data analysis was adopted,and an ASDE-X data extraction tool was developed to achieve rapid extraction of ASDE-X operational data,and the extracted ASDE-X operational data was used to measure the runway occupancy time of incoming flights,and the differences in runway occupancy time were compared and analyzed for different aircraft wake types,aircraft types,runway configurations,fast breakaway locations,and final approach speeds.The results showed that the main factor influencing the runway occupancy time was the location of the fast departure lane,with a weight of 40.24%.The weighted average R-squared value between the prediction result and the actual observation is 0.93,indicating that the prediction model has good accuracy.The runway occupancy time and minimum separation criteria for common aircraft combinations at CTU Airport were analyzed.The runway occupancy time is the main factor affecting the runway capacity if medium-sized aircraft are used as the front aircraft,and the minimum wake separation criteria is the main factor affecting the runway capacity if heavy and super heavy aircraft are used as the front aircraft.Finally,a runway capacity model based on runway occupancy time was constructed to simulate and evaluate the runway capacity of different aircraft type arrival combinations,and the results showed that the dynamic wake interval adjustment using runway occupancy time prediction value can improve the approach runway capacity by 5.67% on average when medium-sized aircraft is the forward aircraft.And AirTop software was used to build a model of CTU Airport and simulate the approach runway capacity with different proportions of medium and heavy aircraft.The results show that the approach runway capacity can be improved by 3.95% on average by using the predicted value of runway occupation time for dynamic wake interval adjustment.