| Since the outbreak of the COVID-19,the commuting behavior of urban residents has been profoundly affected.Commuting is an important part of the travel structure of urban residents,and has the characteristics of relatively stable travel time and space.During the outbreak of the COVID-19,changes in urban residents’ commuting methods played an important role in the reduction of public transport ridership.Thus,it is necessary to determine the change intensity of commuters’ commute mode during the epidemic,analyzing the key factors affecting the choice of commuting mode and its mechanism.This study uses the Guangzhou mobile signaling data in May 2021,analyzing the effect of the distance between commuters and rail station and stops of epidemic around commuters on commute mode.The main research content of this article is as follows:（1）In order to ensure that the commuting mode of research objects is changed from the commuting demand to decline.Mobile signaling data were used to select commuters who had been commuting by subway before the outbreak of the epidemic,and the commuting intensity during the epidemic was consistent with that before the epidemic.（2）In order to explore the impact of distance between commuters and rail station on commute mode choice,we use random forest model to analyze the distance from the commuters’ residence or workplace to the rail station,commuter characteristics,built environment will have the non-linear effects on commute mode during the epidemic.（3）In order to determine whether there is an impact on the commuting choice behavior of residents due to the COVID-19,this study uses the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree to analyze the nonlinear impact of the number of case stops on the commuting probability of commuters who continue to choose the rail transit during the epidemic period,and also analyzes the synergistic effect of the number of case stops and the built environmental factors around the rail station on commuting mode choice. |
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