Periodical Timing Investment Strategy Of SANY Heavy Industry Based On EEMD Method

The market behavior of a stock contains all the factors that affect the price.The stock price is not only affected by economic and political factors,but also be influenced by some factors such as expectation and emotion of investors.Therefore,many stocks in China capital market have periodic performance.As an important part of China’s real estate and infrastructure industries,construction machinery industry has a significant cyclical performance,and its stock prices show periodic fluctuations.In the face of such strong cyclical enterprises,investors face the problem of how to invest with the period of stock.In this thesis,a periodic timing investment strategy is constructed by using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition（EEMD）.Besides,taking SANY Heavy Industry as a case,this thesis explains and analyzes the periodic phenomenon of SANY Heavy Industry’s stock price.Firstly,the reason why the stock’s periodic phenomenon of SANY Heavy Industry happens is analyzed through three cycle perspectives of macro economy,industry and the enterprise.Then,according to the result of EEMD,the history cyclical variation of SANY’s stock price is analyzed and be explored in different period.In addition,combining the result of EEMD,this thesis built a timing strategy based on each component of the cycle.At last,through historical backtest,practical operation and comparison with the ema timing strategy,this thesis demonstrates the feasibility and rationality of this strategy and explore the universality of the cyclical timing strategy by applying the strategy to other similar companies.The results show that:（1）The cyclical timing strategy established in this paper based on EEMD method is an effective investment strategy,which can capture the rising periodic fluctuations of stock price.This strategy reflects good profitability and risk avoidance ability in both rising and falling stock price cycles.Besides,investors should pay more attention to the long-term stock price cycle in the rising cycle and notice the short-term cycle fluctuation of the stock affected by the market game in the falling cycle.（2）Due to the strong cyclical characteristics of SANY Heavy Industry,the current economic policy cycle and enterprise development cycle is one of the reasons for the periodic fluctuations of the stock.In addition,enterprises have a large volume in the capital market,attracting the attention of a large number of investors.Therefore,investors’ expectations and market sentiment also result in the characteristics of periodic fluctuations.（3）According to the law of historical cycle of stock price,the cyclical timing investment strategy in this paper has also achieved good profit performance in other similar enterprises,and this strategy is universal.