Analysis Of Epidemiological Characteristics And Time Series Prediction Of Injury Deaths In Some Areas Of Hebei Province

Objectives To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of injury deaths in some areas of Hebei Province from 2014 to 2018.And to clarify the impact of injury deaths on the life expectancy of residents at this stage.Using time series method to establish ARIMA model to predict the future occurrence of injury death.To explore the application of time series method in injury death trend prediction,and to provide scientific basis for formulating injury death control strategies and measures.Methods The data of all causes of death among residents from January 1,2014 to December 31,2018 in mortality surveillance sites registered by the Hebei Disease Control and Prevention Center was collected.Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze injury death level,injury death type,life loss and change trend.Taking the monthly number of injury deaths in Hebei Province from January 2014 to December 2018as a sample,the time series method was used to establish an ARIMA model to predict the number of deaths in each month in 2019.The predicted values and actual values were compared to evaluate the application of injury deaths trend prediction.Results 1 From 2014 to 2018,a total of 438727 people died from all causes of death in some areas of Hebei Province,with an average annual death rate of 593.76/100000.The male mortality rate was 676.31/100000,and the female mortality rate was 507.63/100000.The male mortality rate was significantly higher than females,the difference was statistically significant（χ²=8900.87,P<0.05）.The urban mortality rate was 565.25/100000,the rural mortality rate was 603.64/100000,and the mortality rate in rural was significantly higher than urban,the difference was statistically significant（χ²=352.80,P<0.05）.The top five causes of death were heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumor,respiratory system disease and injury.The annual mortality rates were 186.87/100000,149.80/100000,122.82/100000,37.83/100000,and 36.16/100000.2 From 2014 to 2018,26721 people died from injuries in some areas of Hebei Province,with an average annual death rate of 36.16/100000,male injury death rate of 51.91/100000,female injury death rate of 19.73/100000,and male was significant higher than female,the difference was statistically significant（χ²=5288.229,P<0.05）.The injury mortality in rural areas was39.95/100000,and urban was 25.23/100000.The rural injury mortality was higher than urban,the difference was statistically significant（χ²=847.475,P<0.05）.There are differences in injury mortality among different age groups.The mortality for the 0-year-old group was 10.33/100000,and then slightly decreased.To 10-year-old,the mortality began to rise.The mortality reached the highest peak in the 85～age group（241.14/100000）.The injury mortality of male is higher than that of female in all age groups.3 From 2014 to2018,the injury mortality in some areas of Hebei Province decreased steadily at an annual rate of 4.16%.The rate of decreasing was 3.87%for male and 3.67%for female.The rate of decreasing for male was higher than that for female.The estimated annual percentage change were statistically significant（all P<0.05）.4 From 2014 to 2018,the main types of injury deaths in some areas of Hebei Province were road traffic accidents,suicides,poisoning,falls,drowning and fires,accounting for 82.96%of all injury deaths.And the composition ratios of each type were 49.20%,10.79%,9.64%,8.51%,3.36%and 1.46%respectively.The mortality of all types of male injury was higher than that of females,and the death rate of road traffic accidents was the highest among male and female injury,which were 26.69/100000 and 8.51/100000 respectively.The death rate of all types of injuries in rural areas was higher than that in cities.Suicide ranked second in the cause of death in rural areas,with a mortality rate of 4.62/100000.Falls ranked second in the cause of death in urban areas,with a mortality rate of 2.51/100000.The type of injury death was different in different age groups.Road traffic accidents were the primary cause of injury deaths in each age group,especially in the 15～44 age group,accounting for 71.91%.Drowning was an important cause of death for children in the 0～14 age group,accounting for 27.50%.Suicide was another major cause of injury deaths in the 45～64 age group,accounting for 13.65%.Poisoning was the second highest in the 65-year-old age group,accounting for 19.15%.5 From 2014 to 2018,the life expectancy of residents in some areas of Hebei Province was 78.63 years（the injury-removed life expectancy was 79.50years）.The life expectancy of male was 76.15 years（the injury-removed life expectancy was 77.33 years）.The life expectancy of female was 81.36 years（the injury-removed life expectancy was 81.85 years）.6 From January 2014 to December 2018,the average monthly injury deaths in some areas of Hebei Province was 445.35.The level of injury deaths showed an overall downward trend,and there were obvious periodic changes.The best prediction model method was ARIMA（0,1,1）（1,1,0）₁₂,the Akaike information criterion（AIC）was 484.78,the Bayes criterion（BIC）was 490.33,the residual sequence was white noise sequence（P>0.05）,the model parameters were significantly non-zero（all P<0.05）.The actual values of the prediction results all fall within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted values,and the relative error between the predicted values and the actual values was between 1.18%and 18.87%.The root mean square error（RMSE）was 32.29,the mean absolute error（MAE）was 25.92,and the mean average percentage error（MAPE）was 6.39%.The prediction performance of the model was good.Conclusions 1 Injury deaths rank fifth among all-cause deaths.The injury mortality rate of male is higher than female,rural area is higher than city.As age increased,the injury mortality gradually rise.2 The injury mortality has been declining year by year.3 The top five causes of injury death are road traffic accidents,suicides,poisoning,falls,and drowning.The main causes of injury death for 0～14 age group,15～44 age group,45～64age group,and 65～age group are drowning,road traffic accidents,suicide and poisoning respectively.4 The injury-removed life expectancy of females is higher than that of males.5 The ARIMA model has good feasibility in the prediction of injury death,and can be used to predict short-term trend of injury death.Figure7;Table 22;Reference 156...