| Object: Comparing Pre-Rockall score(PRS),Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),AIMS65 score in liver cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal varices bleeding(EGVB),to evaluate thier predictive value of the prognosis of EGVB patients,and to screen alternative programs for the clinical use of the scoring system.Methods: The records of 206 patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Medicine of Shihezi University School from November 2016 to May 2020 were retrospectively analyzed.The PRS,GBS and AIMS65 scores of each patient at admission were calculatedand.All patients were followed up for more than 6months.They were divided into groups according to whether they died or had rebleeding,within 6 weeks and 6 months after admission,whether they received blood transfusion during their hospitalization,and the length of stay.Using SPSS and Med Calc to analyze and compare the scores and the AUC of the three score systems among the groups,and to calculate the cut-off value.Through the above methods,we can evaluate the value of the three scoring systems in predicting death,rebleeding,blood transfusion,and length of hospital stay of patients with gastroesophageal varices bleeding.Results:Firstly,a total of 206 patients were included in this study,including 135 males(65.5%),with a median age of 54(47,69.25)years and a median length of stay 7(5,9)days.27 cases(13.1%)died within6 weeks after admission,38 cases(18.4%)died within 6 months.46 cases(22.3%)had rebleeding within 6weeks,91 cases(44.1%)had rebleeding within 6 weeks.131 cases(63.6%)had received blood transfusion during hospitalization,and 89 cases(43.2%)had been hospitalized for more than 7 days.Secondly,the PRS,GBS,and AIMS65 scores of the death group was higher than the survival group within 6 weeks and 6 months respectively(P<0.05).Only the PRS in the rebleeding group within 6 weeks was higher than the non-rebleeding group.The GBS and AIMS65 scores of blood transfusion patients were higher than those in the non-transfusion group(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in the three scores between the rebleeding group and the non-rebleeding group within 6 months,and between the length of stay more than 7 days group and the less than 7 days group.Thildly,the AUC of the PRS,GBS,and AIMS65 score was 0.744,0.726,0.737 when predicting death in 6 weeks,and thier differences were not statistically significant,and the cut-off values were >2,>11,>1.The AUC was 0.682,0.691,0.685 when predicting death in 6 months,and thier differences were not statistically significant,and the cut-off values were >2,>10,>1.The AUC was0.665,0.571,0.527 when predicting rebleeding in 6 weeks,PRS was better than AIMS65 score(P<0.05),and the cut-off values were >2,>10,>1.The AUC was 0.528,0.505,0.513 when predicting rebleeding in 6months,and thier differences were not statistically significant,and the cut-off values were >0,>10,<2.The AUC was 为 0.538,0.677,0.674 when predicting blood transfusion,GBS and AIMS65 score were better than PRS(P<0.05),and the cut-off values were >1,> 8,>1.The AUC was 0.540,0.548,0.506 when predicting the length of stay more than 7 days in hospital,and thier differences were not statistically significant,and the cut-off values were≤1、≤11、≤0.Conclusion:Firstly,PRS,GBS,AIMS65 score has similar certain predictive value in 6 weeks death of cirrhosis patients with EGVB.AIMS65 score was recommended for its practicality.Secondly,the cut-off values is 1 for AIMS65 score in predicting death within 6 weeks.Thildly,PRS,GBS,AIMS65 scores were limted to predict rebleeding,blooding transfusion,and length of stay in hospital for liver cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal varices bleeding. |
