Geospatial Analysis And Prevention And Control Strategy Of Theft Crime Based On Place-based Policing ——A Case Study Of District X Of H City

Place-Based Policing refers to a new type of policing model advocated by contemporary criminologists such as David Weisburd.In recent years,the research on place-based policing in our country is in the ascendant,and some achievements have been achieved.However,there are also some problems,such as staying in the theoretical introduction stage,lacking relevant empirical verification and analysis,and lacking practical operations for police practice reference.On the basis of introducing the relevant theories of location policing,we conduct an empirical study on theft crimes in X District of H City in 2018.According to the logic or analysis path from phenomenon,attribute to prevention and control,the theft crime hotspot phenomenon was detected and visualized in different spatial scales in a standardized way.control strategies and recommendations for urban space governance.This study also has a certain reference significance for the reform of the policing model with Chinese characteristics based on the location policing theory.The main contents are listed as follow:（1）Define the scope of research and introduce the theoretical basis.First,we clearly defined the research object.Using the broad concept of crime in criminology,it includes both the crime of theft stipulated in the "Criminal Law" and the illegal act of theft stipulated in the "Public Security Administration Punishment Law".It only includes thefts that occur in physical spaces such as streets,including ordinary theft,pickpocketing,and burglary,excluding thefts that occur in virtual spaces.After screening and processing,a total of 4907 pieces of theft case information in 2018 were selected as the basic data for the study through the case record platform of the X District Public Security Bureau in H City.Secondly,we systematically introduce the theory of location policing and give the definition of location policing.Its theoretical basis is daily activity theory,situational crime prevention theory,crime pattern theory and related theories of location criminology.The evidence is based on the fact that crime has significant aggregation in location and crime aggregation has stability.Location policing has strong effectiveness and feasibility.（2）The geospatial phenomenon of theft crime is analyzed.After discussing the importance of spatial scale selection,we conduct point pattern analysis and community area pattern analysis through exploratory spatial analysis techniques.This study found that there are obvious crime hotspots in theft crime at different spatial scales.The hot spot analysis of theft crime in the point mode includes grid division and kernel density estimation,and it is concluded that the area along the northeastern border of the X zone is the hot spot of theft crime in the X zone.The hot spot analysis of theft crime under the surface model is carried out with the community as the spatial unit,and finally four communities including Dagangqiao Community,Shuiyue Community,Huayuanting Community,and Xixi Community are detected as the hot spots of theft crime in X District.After comparison,it is found that in terms of the accuracy of hot spot detection,the point mode is better than the area mode,but the hot spot analysis in the area mode is easy to operate.（3）The geospatial attribute of the crime location of theft is analyzed.From the perspective of spatial dependence,this paper establishes the Independent Variable Spatial Lag model（SLX）,Spatial Lag model（SAR）and Spatial Durbin model（SDM）.After solving,it is found that shopping malls can effectively suppress the theft crime of local spatial units,so that the crime can only be transferred to adjacent spatial units;Commercial housing will attract the theft crime of local space units,making the crime transfer from adjacent space units to local space units;The existence of police agencies in space units will effectively curb the theft crime of local space units,so that the crime can only be transferred to adjacent space units.From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity,a geographically weighted regression model（GWR）is established and solved.It is found that the positive impact of commercial housing on theft crime is basically decreasing in waves from the central and western regions to the north and south sides;The restraining effect of police agencies on theft is basically decreasing in waves from the central and western regions to the north and south sides.（4）The prevention and control strategies and urban space governance suggestions are put forward.First,according to the hot spot analysis of theft crime in the point mode,three main prevention and control methods can be adopted: adjust the patrol route,increase the crime cost and strengthen grid management.For hot spots in the face mode,local policing that integrates community policing should be actively carried out.Specifically,it includes: supervise hotspot areas,protect potential victims and suppress potential criminals.Secondly,this study proposes that: Urban spatial layout should avoid the construction of residential quarters with excessive traffic to reduce the attractiveness to theft criminals.Reasonably plan the layout of police agencies and set up police stations near public toilets.Focus on maintaining the collective effectiveness of the community.Increase the diversity of land use types and achieve multi-functional development and utilization of land space as much as possible.Finally,we propose to explore a policing model with Chinese characteristics from a practical point of view,using big data policing to be compatible with local policing.