| Since the reform of housing marketization in 1998,the real estate industry has become a new growth point of China’s economy.The urban housing price increased dramatically,especially in the cities that participated in the " battle for people ",whose housing price growth shows an irrational trend.Although the boom in the real estate market has improved people’s living and housing conditions and boosted China’s economic development,the excessively high growth rate of housing price may affect the growth rate of talent inflow in "battle for people" cities.With the rising housing price in cities,talents have to bear more pressure of life,so that some talents choose to flee from the first-tier cities and flow to the new first-tier and second-tier cities.The excessively high housing price in cities may produce "crowding out effect" for talents.This paper aims to explore whether the rise of urban housing prices has an impact on the flow of talents between cities,and whether the impact of different levels of urban housing prices is different.After combing the relevant literature and analyzing the influence mechanism of urban housing price on talent flow,this paper concludes that the rising urban housing price has "crowding out effect" and "pulling effect" on talent flow.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper puts forward two assumptions :(1)At the national level,urban housing price has an inverted U-shaped drive on talent flow,and the rise of housing price to a certain extent will inhibit talent flow;(2)The rising housing prices in cities of different levels have different influences on the flow of talents,and the high housing prices in first-tier cities have the main influence on the flow of talents by "crowding out effect".Based on the relevant data of 30 provincial capital cities in China from 2006 to2018,this paper selects urban housing prices as explanatory variables,talent flow as explanatory variables,per capita GDP level,wage level,education level,traffic level and medical level as control variables,respectively,to establish fixed effect model and system GMM model,first of all,the overall sample of the city housing prices on the impact of talent flow,and then further analysis of the first line,new line and second line and the following urban sub-level.The empirical results show that(1)from the overall data analysis,the impact of urban housing prices on the flow of talent has a nonlinear relationship,urban talent as a proportion of employed people with the rise of housing prices showed a trend of first increase and then decrease,which means that the rise in housing prices within a certain level corresponds to the strengthening of the city’s attractiveness to talent,but excessive housing prices will eventually have a crowding out effect on talent;(2)From the data analysis of different levels of cities,the high housing prices in the three first-tier cities of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou have an obvious crowding out effect on talents,and the proportion of talents in the employment population in the new first-tier cities increases with the rising housing prices.Under the driving effect of continuous economic development and the crowding out effect of irrational exuberance in the real estate market,the housing price in the second-tier and below cities has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the influence of talent flow.Finally,according to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward several policy suggestions,such as adjusting the talent introduction policy,paying attention to regional economic development,and strengthening the government’s macro-control of the real estate market. |
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