A Study On Urban Differences And Spatial Effects Of The Impact Of Population Mobility On Housing Prices

China's seventh population census data shows,the size of the floating population in China has reached 376 million,with an increase of nearly 70% in 10 years.In the context of the decreasing birth rate and the increasing aging problem,the floating population plays a crucial role in enhancing the development potential of the city.For the urban real estate,the floating population as the consuming population also has an impact on the housing price.As the scale of populous mobility in China continues to expand,the population mobility phenomenon will exacerbate the change of housing price.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the intrinsic influence of floating mobility on housing price,in the hope of providing a reference for urban decision-makers to formulate a coordinated development mechanism between floating population and housing market.Firstly,the concepts of population mobility and housing prices are defined in this thesis.And then on the basis of sorting out theories related to population mobility and theories of housing price supply and demand,the mechanism of the impact of population mobility on housing prices is dissected from both the demand and supply levels.In addition,the differential impact of population inflow on urban housing prices is analyzed mainly from two aspects,namely the differentiation of economic development levels and the differentiation of urban agglomeration effects,laying a theoretical foundation for subsequent research.Secondly,the impact of different types of urban population mobility on housing price in China is explored.Based on the panel data of 32 large and medium-sized cities selected in the research,the validity of the model results is ensured by the Stability test,and the type and effect of the model are determined by the Joint hypotheses test and Hausman test,and finally a variable intercept panel data model with fixed effects is established for empirical analysis.According to the empirical results,there are significant differences in the impact of population mobility on housing prices in eastern cities,central cities,western cities,high-priced cities,and low-priced cities in China,and cities with high housing prices and low housing prices.Compared with the cities in middle region and west region,the population mobility in the east is significantly larger,and the population mobility frequently has a significant role in promoting the rise of the housing price;the role of the central city and the western city of the population mobility is not obvious,and the study believes that housing prices in central and western cities are more determined by the endogenous urban dividend and the housing needs of local residents;through the comparative exploration of high housing prices and low housing prices,it is found that the more frequent the population mobility,the more positive the housing price of high house prices and low house price cities,but the excessive housing price will have a repulsive effect on the population.Then,the spatial effect of population mobility on housing price is expounded.The spatial econometric model is employed and the spatial correlation of population mobility and house prices in China are analyzed by using the Moran's I and the Moran scatterplot;Going forward,using the data of relevant variables in the previous thesis,through LM test and LR test,the spatial Durbin model is established to analyze the spatial impact of relevant variables on housing prices.And the empirical results show that there is a spatial autocorrelation between housing price and population mobility in China,and population mobility also has a positive promoting effect on housing price in space.The influence of population mobility on housing price can be divided into two parts: direct effect and indirect effect.The former is displayed by the feature that the mobility of population in the city can significantly affect the housing prices,while the indirect effect shows that the mobility of population in the city can also affect housing prices in neighboring cities.In addition,the impact on housing prices in neighboring cities will also exert a feedback effect on housing prices in that city.Finally,the differential and spatial effects of population mobility on the housing price are summarized.Based on the result,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.