Delayed Retirement,Endowment Insurance Premium Reduction And Government Debt Ratio

With the slow rise of the country’s economic growth,China’s fiscal deficit rate has been in a state of rising,and the scale of debt at all levels of government has been expanding.The increasing risk of debt,which cannot be repaid once it is due,will not only plunge the government into a huge debt crisis,but may also bring serious financial risks and thus affect social stability.As the number of aging population becomes more and more big,the number of pension income less than expenditure is also increasing,and some provinces have already collected certain funds as financial subsidies to make up the gap between pension income and expenditure.And what exactly will be the impact of both delayed retirement as a reform program to be launched in response to the aging problem and the continuous implementation of pension insurance fee reduction on government debt?In this paper,we model the subject of this paper based on the life cycle theory and OLG model and analyze the theoretical aspects.We construct an overlapping generations model that includes the dynamic changes of government debt factors,and classify the effects of the delayed retirement factor and the pension insurance contribution rate factor on the government debt rate into direct and indirect effects.This paper first analyzes the direct effects of delayed retirement and pension insurance contribution rate reduction on the government debt rate and the indirect effects on the government debt rate through the effects on physical capital in the basic model,and then puts the fertility rate and human capital factors into the model based on the basic model to study the direct effects of pension insurance contribution rate reduction and delayed retirement on the government debt rate and the indirect effects on the government debt rate through the effects on physical capital and human capital The model is simulated numerically,and the parameters of the tax rate and time preference factor are changed for sensitivity analysis to verify the validity of the findings.We find that,in terms of direct effects,the longer the delay in retirement,the lower the government debt rate,and the lower the pension insurance contribution rate,the higher the debt rate;in terms of indirect effects,the effect of delaying retirement on physical capital can be offset by two mechanisms of action that delaying retirement will lead to a decrease in the government debt rate,and the reduction of fees will also lead to an increase in the debt rate through a decrease in physical costs,and a rise in the debt rate through an increase in human capital The debt rate decreases due to the rise in human capital.The sensitivity analysis of tax rate and time preference factor is also conducted,and we can include that the increase of tax rate will lead to the increase of physical capital and negatively affect the human capital and government debt rate;the time preference factor is negatively related to physical capital and human capital,and positively related to government debt rate.Finally,in response to the findings of this paper,we propose to gradually implement a differentiated delayed retirement policy and provide appropriate jobs for delayed retirees with weaker labor capacity,maintain the pension insurance contribution rate at least at the current level without downward adjustment,flexibly optimize the government debt investment and financing mechanism,advocate strengthening the concept of household savings,improve the personal income tax collection and management system and make appropriate adjustments as needed,and continuously innovate to improve China’s fiscal strength,through which we can gradually improve the debt affordability of the central government and other levels of government.