Prediction And Evaluation Of Mine Water Inflow Based On Statistical And Dynamic Methods

At present,there are still large errors in the prediction of mine water inflow.According to the predicted value of mine water inflow with large errors,minefield mining will often threaten the safe mining of minefield and cause great damage to regional groundwater resources.Therefore,it is more accurate to estimate.The mine water inflow is of practical significance.This paper takes Hanglaiwan minefield as an example,and on the basis of fully grasping and analyzing the hydrogeology,mining process,hydrometeorology and water inflow of the minefield,it uses various methods of statistics and dynamics to predict the water inflow of Hanglaiwan minefield.And analyzed and evaluated the prediction results and prediction methods.Now the following main research results have been obtained:(1)The trend analysis method was used to establish a logarithmic function relationship model between the water inflow and the time in the study area,and the mine water inflow in the Hanglaiwan Minefield was predicted to be 4.49×10~4m~3/d;the long-sequence mine water inflow in the Hanglaiwan Minefield was analyzed with time.Using SPSS software to establish a more reasonable ARIMA(1,1,0)model,and predict that the mine water inflow is8.33×10~4m~3/d;with the help of SPSS software,the relationship between the water inflow in the study area and the cumulative goaf area is established.The logarithmic function and power function regression model of the logarithmic function and power function regression model,the water inflow is predicted to be 3.09×10~4m~3/d and 3.22×10~4m~3/d respectively;the water-rich coefficient method is used to solve the water-rich coefficient,and the relationship between the water inflow and the mining volume in Hanglaiwan mine field is established.It is predicted that the normal water inflow is 1.97×10~4m~3/d.(2)Using the analytical method,the large well method and the gallery method,the normal water inflow in the early mining section of the Hanglaiwan Minefield is predicted to be 1.17×10~4m~3/d.Visual modflow software is selected to accurately establish a numerical model that conforms to the real situation,and two different mining schemes are set according to the height of the water-conducting and cracked zone,and the water inflow of each scheme is predicted:Among them,the water inflow of each scheme is predicted by the slicing mining coal seam,which is 3.08×10~4m~3/d,method 2 is based on the prediction of the water inflow of the full seam mining coal seam is 5.23×10~4m~3/d.(3)Analysis and evaluation of water inflow prediction results and prediction methods are carried out for a variety of prediction methods.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the numerical method is higher,followed by the regression analysis method.Therefore,the final recommendation of numerical prediction method 1(sliced mining coal seam)results as the water inflow prediction result:3.08×10~4m~3/d.(4)Based on the prediction results of the numerical method,it is analyzed that coal mining has a small impact on the Quaternary phreatic resources and groundwater level;in the two schemes of slicing coal seam and full seam mining,the full seam mining causes local.The burial depth of diving in the conduction area has dropped too much,resulting in the inability of the representative desert vegetation in the minefield to survive.The impact of the slicing coal seam in the minefield and the full-layer mining coal seam in the non-conductive area of the minefield is close to the degree of impact on the desert vegetation.The vegetation succeeds to the xerophyte,so the protection measures for the desert vegetation in the minefield are proposed.