Disaster Shocks, Analyst Attention, And Earnings Management

Natural disasters not only cause inestimable damage to human production and life,but also have a serious impact on enterprises,and agricultural listed companies are deeply restricted by natural environmental factors.Due to facing both market risk and natural risk,agricultural listed companies are more difficult to maintain stable growth than non-agricultural listed companies,which also makes agricultural listed companies have stronger earnings management motivation than non-agricultural listed companies.As the external governance mechanism of listed companies,analyst tracking has more advantages in restraining earnings management.Therefore,this paper puts disaster shock,analyst concern and earnings management under the same framework to explore whether disaster shock will affect the earnings management behavior of agricultural enterprises,and the regulatory effect of analyst attention on the relationship between them.Based on the sample of agricultural listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2011 to 2019,this paper mainly studies the earnings management behavior of agricultural enterprises under the influence of external events such as natural disasters.At the same time,it analyzes and tests whether the analyst plays the role of "external manager" or "pressure exporter" in the relationship between disaster shock and earnings management of agricultural enterprises.In this paper,it is found that in the agricultural listed companies of gem and small and medium-sized board,there is a significant positive correlation between disaster shock and real earnings management,and analysts' attention has a positive regulatory effect on it.It shows that the more analysts follow the company,the more serious the impact of disaster,the more real earnings management will exist.The nature of property rights,profitability,growth ability and marketization level will all have a certain impact on the relationship between disaster impact and real earnings management.The research of this paper deepens the research on the impact of natural disasters on the capital market and enriches the exploration in the micro field.It also expands the literature of analysts' attention and verifies the role and significance of analysts' attention to the behavior of agricultural enterprises.