Research On Short-term Power Generation And Load Forecasting Model And Charging And Discharging Control Strategy Of Microgrid Residential Quarters

As global energy and environmental problems become more and more serious,the use of renewable energy to replace traditional thermal power generation and electric vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles has become the main trend of sustainable development in the future.But renewable energy power generation and the large number of electric vehicles connected to the distribution network will inevitably bring serious challenges to the operation of the distribution network.In order to meet this challenge,this paper proposes a grid-connected Micro-Grid that combines renewable energy power generation,electric vehicles,residential communities,etc.,and studies the charge and discharge control strategy based on the load prediction of residential communities under this Micro-Grid.Solve the problem of timely consumption of renewable energy generation,and maintain the safe and stable operation of the distribution network in residential areas.This article first introduces the development status and related research of the Micro-Grid,electric vehicle charging and discharging control strategies and short-term load forecasting,and recognizes the mode of electric vehicle access to the Micro-Grid.Secondly,combined with the analysis of electric vehicle development factors,new energy vehicle sales analysis and electric vehicle ownership analysis,the development scale and development prospects of China's electric vehicles are analyzed,and it is recognized that the large number of electric vehicles connected to the distribution network has become the future development trend.Based on the related technologies and applications of V2 G technology of electric vehicles,the ability to participate in the regulation and control of distribution networks and the ability to consume renewable energy,a grid-connected Micro-Grid(Micro-Grid residential area)combining renewable energy power generation,electric vehicles,and residential communities has been built.Effective dispatching of Micro-Grid is inseparable from accurate load forecasting,so this paper builds a conventional load forecasting model,a photovoltaic power forecasting model and a wind power forecasting model,and verifies the effectiveness of the model through algorithms;finally,ordinary residents are established The electric vehicle charging and discharging control model of the community,on this basis,a Micro-Grid residential area charging and discharging control model based on the conventional load prediction results of the residential community and the photovoltaic/wind powergeneration prediction results is established,and then a real-time solution based on genetic algorithm is designed.The charge-discharge control strategy of the system was verified by simulation examples to verify the effectiveness of the strategy and the reliability of the model.Through calculation and comparative analysis of the total revenue of the Micro-Grid operators in different situations,the Micro-Grid operators' construction and operation Micro-Grid residential area can have higher income,and can reduce the total cost of electricity for residents in Micro-Grid residential area.This paper systematically proposes a solution and ideas that can solve the problems related to renewable energy power generation and the large number of electric vehicles connected to the distribution network,providing reference for grid companies in their "14th Five-Year Plan" power planning decisions.