Research On Default Risk Of Coal Industry Bonds Based On KMV Model

Before 2014,there was no substantive default event in the bond market.After the "11 super day bond" default event in 2014,the rigid cashing of bonds was broken.Under the background of China's economic downturn in recent years,the main keynote of the country's macroeconomic policy is "supply side reform" and "deleveraging and strong supervision" of economic policy by,which leads to frequent default events in the bond market.However,bond defaults are mainly concentrated in traditional cyclical industries such as steel and coal,which are relatively overcapacity and are the main positions of the national "de capacity" policy.Moreover,most of the default subjects are private enterprises.The "deleveraging and strong supervision" increase the financing cost of these enterprises and hinder the financing channels.For the private enterprises that rely on a large number of loans for development,it increases the risk The initial repayment pressure.As a result,the time of bond default is endless.Therefore,in this context,this paper selects the coal industry as the research object,Yongtai energy as the research case,explores the causes of bond default in this industry,and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.Yongtai energy,the case selected in this paper,is the largest private listed company in the coal industry.The fact that its bonds are substantially in default is a typical representative in the coal industry.Based on the coal industry,this paper first combs the relevant theories and literature of bond default;then explores the current situation of bond default in the coal industry and the causes behind it from the macro and micro levels;and then takes Yongtai energy as a research case,analyzes its basic situation and bond issuance,and deeply discusses its default process,as well as the causes Finally,through KMV model,the default distance is calculated,and the reality of bond default in coal industry is analyzed from different time periods,vertical industry comparison and horizontal industry comparison of Yongtai energy.And draw the following conclusions,(1)KMV model is effective in testing and identifying the default distance of different risk groups;(2)The smaller the default distance is,the greater the default risk is,and the default distance is inversely proportional to the default probability;(3)In the same industry,companies whose default distance is below the industry average have higher credit risk of bond default(4)The horizontal comparison shows that the average default distance of the coal industry in the industrial chain ranks lower,but the average default distance of the closely connected downstream industries is not large,which indicates that the credit risk of the coal industry is not optimistic.Through the research and analysis of coal industry and cases,the enlightenment is as follows:(1)Enterprises should formulate reasonable development strategy,moderate financing and pay attention to the latest external financing environment;(2)At the development level of coal industry,we should "eliminate the weak and retain the strong" in production capacity,"innovate" in mining technology and reduce energy consumption;(3 Regulators should closely supervise the refinancing industry;(4)Investors need to improve their risk identification ability and have reasonable expectations of bond yields.