Operation Planning Analysis Of Power Grid Flexibility Regulation Under Uncertain Risk Scenarios Of Wind/solar Output

With the deepening of the concept of clean and low-carbon,large-scale development of new energy has become a trend.The large-scale grid connection of wind/light has a positive impact on environmental protection,but at the same time it also brings challenges to the operation planning of the power grid.The traditional power grid's response to volatility and uncertainty is usually to set a sufficient reserve margin proportionally.However,when the grid-connected capacity of new energy increases,if the fluctuation is severe at this time,this “one size fits all” decision is often price Expensive,excessively high thermal power can even cause a waste of resources.Therefore,the flexible operation planning urgently needs to be studied.A single backup control measure urgently needs to be expanded to a multi-scale flexible control measure.In view of the shortcomings of traditional operation planning,based on the study of multi-scale flexibility control measures of source network load storage,this paper puts forward the operation planning algorithm to effectively reduce the risk of total operation control.In the context of the problem of high proportion wind/light being incorporated into the power grid,which makes the power grid uncertain,this paper aims to coordinate all kinds of flexible resources,especially to tap the value of thermal power units in short-and medium-term operation planning,in order to prevent and control the risk of wind abandonment,waste light and power failure in the power system,and to realize flexible operation planning.The main work is as follows:(1)Based on the forecast analysis under the uncertainty of wind/light output,a mathematical model describing the volatility and uncertainty existing in the power grid—uncertain risk scenarios is proposed,and the short-term and medium-term flexibility control requirements are analyzed and explored respectively.The source network load storage can participate in the flexibility control measures and complete the modeling,and complete the analysis of the principle of multi-scale flexible operation planning.(2)Based on the improvement of CPR index(cost performance ratio index),the short-term operation planning model of power grid flexibility regulation is established,the interaction between the thermal power-on capacity and the day-to-day regulation is analyzed,the iteration optimization algorithm in the short-term operation plan is proposed,the risk of abandoned new energy and power failure is compared and analyzed,and the applicability of the short-term operation planning algorithm to various scenarios is compared.(3)On the basis of the flexible control short-term operation planning model,consider the start and stop of thermal power units,and further propose a mid-term operation planning model,explore the value of the start and stop of thermal power units in the mid-term operation planning,and further improve the CPR index.Set up a scheduling optimization window,coordinate with up and down backup measures for risk prevention and control,and compare and analyze the applicability of the mid-term operation plan to various scenarios and the impact of the start and stop of thermal power units on the risk prevention and control in the mid-term operation plan,and compare and verify the mid-term operation plan.The operation planning algorithm can effectively reduce the cost of risk prevention and control.Finally,we can realize short-term and medium-term flexible control,coordinate the prevention and control of new energy abandonment and power outage risks,and effectively reduce the prevention and control risks of the whole process,through the above analysis.