Research On Irrigation Scheme And Growth Prediction And Evaluation Of Tobacco Leaves Based On WOFOST Model

Tobacco is an important source of my country’s fiscal tax increase,and its status is very important.Xuchang,Henan is one of the main tobacco producing areas,famous for its large planting area and wide distribution,which are exported to domestic and foreign countries.In recent years,crop growth models have been widely used at home and abroad to forecast the yield of various crops,field management guidance,and precision agriculture,and have achieved great success.In view of the application advantages of the growth simulation model and the fact that it is rarely carried out in China,this paper uses the WOFOST model to carry out related research on tobacco meteorological services.The purpose of this study is to use meteorological data based on the tobacco crop growth simulation model to carry out the development and exploration of tobacco meteorological service products in Xuchang.This paper first uses the historical planting data of the two important planting areas in Xuchang(hereinafter referred to as Xuchang and Xiangcheng)and the meteorological,soil and crop data of the field test in 2021 to calibrate and verify the parameters of the WOFOST model;on the basis of model localization In the past,through the establishment of various irrigation schemes,the optimal irrigation was determined to provide guidance for tobacco irrigation management;historical meteorological data,observations,weather forecasts and other meteorological data were used to drive the WOFOST tobacco model,and the simulation results were used to carry out growth and development prediction and development.Evaluation,etc.,to analyze the prediction and simulation effect of tobacco growth within the forecast period.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The WOFOST model can better simulate the growth and development process of Xuchang tobacco through the calibration and verification of the parameters of the tobacco crop through the experimental data,and realizes the localization of the tobacco simulation of the WOFOST model.The parameters were corrected using the observation data of the tobacco experiment in Xiangcheng in 2021,and verified using the historical planting data in Xiangcheng and the field experiment data in Xuchang.The parameter-corrected WOFOST model has passed the adaptability verification and is suitable for the growth simulation of the main tobacco producing areas in Xuchang,and can be used for further research applications.(2)The localized WOFOST tobacco model was used to analyze the changes of tobacco leaf growth with irrigation time,irrigation amount,and irrigation times,and obtained the optimal plan,which can provide a basis for water-saving and irrigation production of tobacco.According to the 30-year historical precipitation data,three types of years are divided.The model simulation results show that the irrigation benefits of wet years and normal water years are low,and the water shortage years are the focus of irrigation research.For water shortage years,if a single irrigation is used,120 mm irrigation is optimal about 10 d after sprouting;the overall effect of two irrigations is obviously better than that of a single irrigation.When water resources are not considered,10d-20 d before sprouting,20d-30 d after sprouting,irrigate120 mm each,the yield will increase the most;the same two irrigations,if water saving is considered,when the irrigation amount is reduced to 60 mm,more yield losses can be saved,and a higher irrigation contribution rate can be obtained.optimal irrigation scheme.(3)A variety of climate scenarios were constructed,and the WOFOST tobacco model was used to quantitatively predict,compare and evaluate the growth status of tobacco.The historical meteorological data,current meteorological data and numerical forecast data are used to construct a variety of climate scenarios,drive the WOFOST tobacco model to give tobacco growth simulation results,predict,compare and quantitatively evaluate the growth status of tobacco,compare the meteorological data observation value simulation and Measure the biomass,test the prediction effect,develop meteorological service products for the application of historical meteorological data,numerical forecast data,and crop models,give the impact of meteorological conditions on growth and development,comparative evaluation of growth conditions under different meteorological conditions,and growth and development under future meteorological conditions Condition forecasts,and rolling numerical products such as tobacco production forecasts,provide a basis for guiding tobacco production.The research shows that the evaluation error of the mean value of historical meteorological data is small,and the tobacco growth in the next 20 days can be quantitatively simulated more accurately.However,due to the systematic error of this method,the difference between different years will be reduced.big.The numerical prediction evaluation can accurately and quantitatively simulate the future 10-day tobacco growth,and the overall error is relatively large compared with the historical mean evaluation method.Therefore,the two methods should be combined and applied to production guidance according to the actual data.This paper can provide technical support for tobacco management and production departments to develop numerical and quantitative rolling weather service products,thereby improving the means and quality of tobacco weather services.